Uniao Leiria - Portimonense prediction 28 February 2026

Our Portimonense vs Uniao Leiria prediction for the Segunda Liga match on February 28, 2026, at 18:00 gives Portimonense a 48% win probability. The hosts enter this fixture in stronger form, but Uniao Leiria's dominant head-to-head record makes this a tightly contested matchup.

Team Form

Portimonense come into this match with a solid run of results, recording three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five outings. They secured a 1-0 home victory against Farense on May 17, followed by a 1-1 draw at Felgueiras. A 3-2 win over Chaves and a 3-2 victory against Lusitania Lourosa highlight their attacking threat, though a 2-0 defeat at Leixoes shows some vulnerability on the road.

Uniao Leiria's recent form is a concern, with just one win in their last five matches. They drew 2-2 at home to СВ Feirense on May 17 and lost 1-0 at Vizela. A heavy 3-0 home defeat to Farense and a 2-1 loss at Felgueiras were followed by a 4-2 home win over Penafiel, indicating inconsistency at both ends of the pitch.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record strongly favors Uniao Leiria. In four previous meetings, Uniao Leiria have won three times, with one draw. Portimonense are yet to register a victory. The most recent clash was on February 28, 2026, where Uniao Leiria won 1-0 at home. The only draw came on October 4, 2025, when Portimonense hosted and the match ended 1-1. Uniao Leiria also won 1-0 in January 2025 and in a Cup match in November 2020.

League Table Positions

Both teams compete in Portugal's Segunda Liga. While exact current table positions and points are not available in the provided data, the recent form suggests Portimonense are likely higher in the standings. Their three wins in five games point to a stronger campaign compared to Uniao Leiria's single victory in the same period.

Win Probability: Portimonense or Uniao Leiria?

Based on the available data, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: Portimonense has a 48% chance of winning, the draw is at 27%, and Uniao Leiria has a 25% chance. This assessment is derived from recent team form, where Portimonense clearly outperform their opponents, and the home advantage factor. However, Uniao Leiria's historical dominance in this fixture (three wins in four meetings) prevents Portimonense from being a stronger favorite. The odds data is not available for a market-based baseline, so the estimation relies on form and H2H records.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific odds for the 1X2 market are not provided in the data. Based on the stats, bookmakers would likely see Portimonense as the favorite due to their superior recent form and home advantage. Our prediction leans towards a home win, but the head-to-head record suggests caution. A draw is a realistic outcome given Uniao Leiria's ability to get results against Portimonense.