Polonia Sroda Wielkopolska - Notec Czarnkow prediction 24 October 2025

Polonia Sroda Wielkopolska vs Notec Czarnkow prediction for the III Liga clash on October 24, 2025, at 17:00. Based on recent form and home advantage, Polonia Sroda Wielkopolska is the favorite with a 45% win probability. The match takes place at Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej in Środa Wielkopolska.

Team Form

Polonia Sroda Wielkopolska enters this match with strong recent results, recording four wins and one loss in their last five outings. Their most recent match was a 1-0 away defeat to Zawisza Bydgoszcz in a Friendly Clubs fixture. Before that, they secured victories against Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce (2-1), Kluczevia Stargard (2-1), LKS Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal (4-0), and Tluchowia Tluchowo (3-1). At home, they have been particularly impressive, winning their last three home games with a combined score of 9-2.

Notec Czarnkow's form is more mixed, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. They won away at Wda Swiecie (3-1) and Elana Torun (3-0), drew 1-1 at Blekitni Stargard Szczecinski, and lost to Lipno Steszew (0-1) and Kluczevia Stargard (0-3). Their away performances have been inconsistent, with two clean-sheet wins but also two defeats where they failed to score.

Head-to-Head Record

In the last four meetings between these sides, Notec Czarnkow has won three times and Polonia Sroda Wielkopolska once, with no draws. The most recent encounter on October 24, 2025, ended in a 6-2 away win for Notec Czarnkow. Earlier, Polonia Sroda Wielkopolska won 4-2 away in March 2025, while Notec Czarnkow recorded 3-1 and 4-1 victories in 2024 and 2023 respectively. The head-to-head record clearly favours the away side.

League Table Positions

The provided III Liga standings (top 12) do not include either Polonia Sroda Wielkopolska or Notec Czarnkow, indicating that both teams are positioned outside the leading group. Legia Warszawa II tops the table with 81 points from 33 matches. Without exact positions, it is difficult to gauge their relative standing, but the form guide suggests Polonia Sroda Wielkopolska may be in better recent shape despite the H2H disadvantage.

Win Probability: Polonia Sroda Wielkopolska or Notec Czarnkow?

After analysing the available data, we calculate the following win probabilities: Polonia Sroda Wielkopolska has a 45% chance of winning, a draw stands at 25%, and Notec Czarnkow has a 30% chance. These percentages are derived from recent form, head-to-head history, and home advantage. Polonia Sroda Wielkopolska’s strong home record (three consecutive home wins) and overall four wins in five matches give them the edge. However, Notec Czarnkow’s superior H2H record (three wins in four meetings) and two recent away wins prevent them from being clear underdogs. The draw probability reflects the competitive nature of the fixture.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available in the provided data. Based purely on the stats, the prediction leans towards a home win, but the head-to-head record suggests caution. Polonia Sroda Wielkopolska’s attacking form at home (9 goals in last 3 home games) makes them likely to score, while Notec Czarnkow’s away inconsistency could be exploited. A 2-1 victory for the home side is a plausible outcome, though a draw cannot be ruled out.