Polonia Bytom - Warta Poznan prediction 24 July 2026

Our Polonia Bytom vs Warta Poznan prediction for the I Liga match on Jul 24, 2026, at 16:00 UTC points to a home win. Polonia Bytom are the favorites with a 52% win probability, while Warta Poznan have only a 23% chance of causing an upset. The head-to-head record is even, but current form heavily favors the hosts.

Team Form

Polonia Bytom's last five matches show two wins and three losses (L, W, L, L, W). Their most recent competitive result was a 4-1 away victory over Znicz Pruszkow in I Liga on May 9, 2026. However, they also suffered a heavy 1-3 home defeat to Slask Wroclaw and a 1-4 loss at Stal Mielec. In pre-season friendlies, they beat Rekord Bielsko-Biala 3-1 but lost 2-3 to Opava. This mixed form suggests they can score but are defensively vulnerable.

Warta Poznan are in poor form with four consecutive friendly defeats and a draw in their last five (L, L, L, L, D). They lost 3-4 to Gornik Polkowice, 1-2 to Lechia Zielona Gora, 1-3 to Chrobry Glogow, and 1-4 to Motor Lublin. Their last competitive match was a 2-2 home draw against Resovia Rzeszow in II Liga on May 30, 2026. Conceding 13 goals in those four friendlies highlights serious defensive issues.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced with one win each and no draws. Polonia Bytom won the most recent encounter 1-0 away at Warta Poznan in the Cup on Sep 23, 2025. Warta Poznan's victory came back in March 2017, a 2-1 away win in II Liga. The last meeting gives Polonia Bytom a psychological edge, and they will look to build on that.

League Table Positions

The 2026/27 I Liga season has not yet started, so all teams are on zero points with no matches played. Both Polonia Bytom and Warta Poznan will be looking to begin the campaign with a positive result. No table advantage exists for either side, making this an even starting point on paper.

Win Probability: Polonia Bytom or Warta Poznan?

Based on the available odds, team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, we calculate the following win probabilities: Polonia Bytom has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Warta Poznan has a 23% chance. The bookmakers' implied probabilities (after removing the margin) gave Polonia Bytom around 50%, but their slightly better recent form and home advantage push that number up. Warta Poznan's four straight friendly losses and lack of competitive wins make them the underdog.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer odds of around 1.87 for a Polonia Bytom home win, 3.70 for the draw, and 3.85 for a Warta Poznan away victory. These odds clearly identify Polonia Bytom as the favorite. For betting tips, the home win at 1.87 offers value given the form disparity. Considering the stats, the most likely outcome is a home win, but the draw odds are also attractive given both teams' inconsistency. Our Polonia Bytom vs Warta Poznan prediction is a home victory, but with caution.