Plaza Colonia - Oriental La Paz prediction 22 May 2026

The Plaza Colonia vs Oriental La Paz prediction points to a home victory when the two sides meet in Uruguay's Segunda Division on May 22, 2026, at 21:00. Based on the historical head-to-head record and current league standings, Plaza Colonia are the clear favorites with an estimated 55% win probability.

Team Form

Plaza Colonia enter this fixture with a form line of W, L, L, W, D across their last five matches. In their most recent outing, they secured a 1-0 home win against La Luz on Jul 04. Their home form has been mixed, with two wins, two defeats, and one draw in the last five at their own ground.

Oriental La Paz have recorded L, D, D, W, D in their last five. They fell to a 2-1 home loss against River Plate Montevideo on Jul 04. Away from home, their recent results include two draws, one win, and two losses, showing they are tough to beat but struggle to turn draws into victories.

Head-to-Head Record

Plaza Colonia have dominated this matchup historically. In three previous meetings, they have three wins, zero draws, and zero losses against Oriental La Paz. The most recent clash on May 22, 2026,—the very same fixture—ended in a 3-1 home win for Plaza Colonia. An earlier meeting on April 24, 2026, finished 2-0. The only time Oriental La Paz hosted, on November 16, 2024, Plaza Colonia still came away with a 2-1 victory.

League Table Positions

In the overall Segunda Division standings, Plaza Colonia sit 7th with 13 points from 9 matches (4 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses; 8 goals scored, 8 conceded). Oriental La Paz are 10th with 11 points from 9 matches (2 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses; 14 scored, 12 conceded). At home, Plaza Colonia rank 7th with 7 points from 5 games, while Oriental La Paz hold the 4th spot in the home table with 9 points from 6 games — though it should be noted that their 'home' ranking reflects matches played at their own venue, not away form.

Win Probability: Plaza Colonia or Oriental La Paz?

After analyzing the available data, the win probability for this match is estimated as follows: Plaza Colonia have a 55% chance to win, the draw is at 25%, and Oriental La Paz have a 20% chance. This calculation is based on Plaza Colonia's perfect head-to-head record, their superior league position, and the home advantage. Oriental La Paz's five draws in nine matches suggest they can be resilient, but their inability to beat Plaza Colonia in three attempts lowers their win probability significantly.

Odds & Match Prediction

Odds data from bookmakers is currently unavailable for this match, but based on the stats, Plaza Colonia would be expected to open as favorites. The final prediction is a home win for Plaza Colonia, likely with a clean sheet given their two previous 2-0 and 3-1 victories over Oriental La Paz.