Pisa - Pistoiese prediction 14 August 2025

Pisa vs Pistoiese prediction for Aug 14, 2025 in the Friendly Clubs competition. Based on head-to-head dominance and home advantage, Pisa has a 55% chance to win. Pistoiese comes in with a 20% win probability, while the draw stands at 25%. Read on for our full analysis.

Team Form

Pisa comes into this match on a five-game losing streak, all in Serie A: defeats to Lazio (1-2), Napoli (0-3), Cremonese (0-3), Lecce (1-2), and Parma (0-1). Five straight losses with 1 goal scored and 11 conceded. However, those opponents are all top-flight Italian sides, so their true level may be understated.

Pistoiese's recent form is mixed: D, W, D, L, D in Serie D. They drew 1-1 with Piacenza, beat Cittadella Vis Modena 5-0, drew 1-1 with Desenzano Calvina, lost 0-1 to Tropical Coriano, and drew 0-0 with Pro Sesto. That’s one win, three draws, one loss, scoring 7 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in three of their last five.

Head-to-Head Record

In the 8 all-time head-to-head meetings, Pisa have won 6 and drawn 2, with Pistoiese yet to record a win. The most recent competitive matches (2018-2019) saw Pisa win 2-1 at home, and 2-0, 2-0, and 1-0 away. Pisa has scored at least once in every encounter, while Pistoiese has failed to score in three of those four defeats.

Win Probability: Pisa or Pistoiese?

We estimate Pisa's win probability at 55%, a draw at 25%, and a Pistoiese victory at 20%. The calculation is based on the historic H2H dominance (Pisa 75% win rate across all meetings), the home advantage, and the team form. While Pisa's recent five defeats look alarming, they faced Serie A opposition, whereas Pistoiese competes in the fourth tier. Pistoiese's solid but unspectacular form and lack of historical success against Pisa keep their chances low. Therefore, Pisa remains the clear favorite, but the draw is a real possibility given their current losing streak.