Pakhtakor - Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent prediction 17 July 2026

Our Pakhtakor vs Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent prediction for the Super League match on Jul 17, 2026, points to a home win. Pakhtakor has a 55% chance of winning, while Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent’s chances are just 17%. The match kicks off at 15:00 and bookmakers clearly see the home side as the favorite.

Team Form

Pakhtakor’s recent form across all competitions reads W, L, W, D, D. They sit 2nd in the Super League table with 26 points from 11 matches (8 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). At home, they have been strong, winning 4 of 6 league games. Their last two Super League outings were draws – 1-1 at Surkhon Termez and 2-2 at home against Nasaf Qarshi – but cup wins over Kattaqorgon (3-0) and Turan Yaypan (4-1) show their scoring power.

Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent compete in the Pro League, a division below. Their last five results are L, W, D, W, W. They lost 1-0 at Oktepa but beat Andijan 2-1 and Sementchi Kuvasoy 1-0, while drawing 2-2 at Havokand. The 6-2 thrashing of Syrdarya FA highlights their attacking threat against weaker sides, but the step up in class here is significant.

Head-to-Head Record

In 29 all-time meetings, Pakhtakor have 12 wins, 12 draws, and 5 losses. The recent head-to-head record is even more one-sided: Pakhtakor have won three of the last four encounters. The most recent meeting (Mar 14, 2024) saw Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent win 3-0 at home, but before that Pakhtakor recorded 2-0 (Oct 2022), 2-0 (May 2022), and 3-0 (Nov 2021) victories.

• Mar 14, 2024: Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent 3-0 Pakhtakor
• Oct 24, 2022: Pakhtakor 2-0 Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent
• May 23, 2022: Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent 0-2 Pakhtakor
• Nov 20, 2021: Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent 0-3 Pakhtakor

League Table Positions

Pakhtakor are 2nd in the Super League with 26 points, just two points behind leaders Neftchi. They have scored 22 goals and conceded 12 in 11 games. Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent do not appear in the Super League standings – they play in the Pro League, making direct league comparison impossible. The gap in division quality heavily favors the home side.

Win Probability: Pakhtakor or Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and the league gap, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Pakhtakor win: 55%
• Draw: 28%
• Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent win: 17%

Bookmakers’ odds imply a home win probability of around 50%, but Pakhtakor’s superior league position, strong home form, and dominant recent H2H (3 wins in 4) push that figure higher. Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent’s chances are limited by the step up in quality and their away loss in the last match. The draw remains a realistic possibility given Pakhtakor’s two recent league draws, but the most likely outcome is a Pakhtakor victory.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for the 1X2 market are:

• Pakhtakor win: 1.60 – 1.62
• Draw: 2.20 – 3.70
• Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent win: 5.00 – 5.55

Bookmakers see Pakhtakor as the clear favorite. The wide range on the draw (from 2.20 to 3.70) reflects some disagreement, but the home win odds are consistently short. Based on the stats, our Pakhtakor vs Lokomotiv Farm Tashkent prediction is a home win. Pakhtakor should have too much quality, especially at home, and the head-to-head record supports a comfortable victory.