Norrby IF - Ostersunds FK prediction 26 July 2026

Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK prediction for the Superettan match on July 26, 2026. Based on our analysis of odds, team form, and league standings, Ostersunds FK enters as the favorite with a 34% win probability, while a draw stands at 38% and Norrby IF at 28%. The match kicks off at 15:00 local time in Sweden's second tier.

Team Form

Norrby IF's recent form has been poor, with only one win in their last five outings (L, W, D, L, L). They suffered a 4-2 friendly loss to Varbergs BoIS, then beat IFK Norrkoping 1-0 away, drew 0-0 at home to United IK Nordic, and lost back-to-back league matches 0-2 to Oddevold and 0-2 to Varbergs BoIS. Over those five games, they scored just three goals and conceded eight.

Ostersunds FK comes into this match in much better shape (W, W, L, D, D). They secured a 2-0 home win over Landskrona BoIS, a 2-0 away victory at GIF Sundsvall, then lost 0-2 at home to IFK Norrkoping, drew 1-1 at Ljungskile, and drew 1-1 at United IK Nordic. With two wins, two draws, and one loss, they have scored six goals and conceded four in that span.

Head-to-Head Record

The last three meetings between these sides are evenly split: one win each and one draw. The most recent clash on April 11, 2026 ended in a 1-1 stalemate at Ostersunds FK. Before that, Ostersunds won 1-0 at home in November 2022, and Norrby IF claimed a 2-0 home victory in June 2022. The head-to-head record offers no clear advantage.

League Table Positions

Ostersunds FK sits 5th in the Superettan with 25 points from 15 matches (7 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses), scoring 24 and conceding 19. Norrby IF is 12th with 17 points (3 wins, 8 draws, 4 losses), with 19 goals for and 21 against. The eight-point gap and superior goal difference underline Ostersunds' stronger campaign. Notably, Norrby IF has drawn more than half of their league games (8 of 15), while Ostersunds FK has a respectable away record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses on the road.

Win Probability: Norrby IF or Ostersunds FK?

We calculate the outcome probabilities as follows: Norrby IF win 28%, draw 38%, Ostersunds FK win 34%. These figures are derived from the average bookmaker odds (home 2.70, draw 2.24, away 2.77), then adjusted for recent form and league positions. Ostersunds FK's better form and higher standing give them a slight edge, but Norrby IF's tendency to draw heavily this season keeps the draw as the single most likely result. Ostersunds FK is the more probable winner if the match does not end level.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see a tight contest. The average odds are 2.70 for a Norrby IF win, 2.24 for a draw, and 2.77 for an Ostersunds FK victory. This pricing implies a draw is the most expected outcome. Our Norrby IF vs Ostersunds FK prediction aligns with the data: a draw is the safest call, but Ostersunds FK holds a narrow advantage to take all three points. Based on the stats, a "draw or away" double chance could offer value for bettors.