Once Caldas - Independiente Del Valle prediction 25 September 2025

The Copa Sudamericana match between Once Caldas and Independiente Del Valle on September 25, 2025, sees Independiente Del Valle as the clear favourite, holding a 50% win probability. Our Once Caldas vs Independiente Del Valle prediction breaks down all the stats, form, and head-to-head data to help you decide who will win.

Team Form

Once Caldas come into this match with a mixed record: D, L, W, D, W over their last five games. That includes a 2-2 draw away to CD Junior, a 0-1 home loss to CD Junior, and a 1-0 home win over Atletico Nacional. Their home form shows two wins and a loss in the most recent three outings, suggesting inconsistency.

Independiente Del Valle, in contrast, are in superb form with four straight wins before a recent slip: W, W, W, W, L. They beat CD Santo Domingo 2-0 away, thrashed Manta 4-0 at home, and defeated Guayaquil City 4-2 away. The lone defeat was a 2-3 home loss to Libertad Loja, but overall they have been scoring freely and winning convincingly.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met twice, both in the Copa Sudamericana, and the away team has won on each occasion:

• Independiente Del Valle 0–2 Once Caldas (Sep 18, 2025)
• Once Caldas 0–2 Independiente Del Valle (Sep 25, 2025)

So neither home advantage nor head-to-head history gives a clear edge to either team; the trend favours the travelling side.

Win Probability: Once Caldas or Independiente Del Valle?

Using the available form, H2H record, and the context of this fixture, we calculate the outcome probabilities as follows:

• Once Caldas win: 25% – They have managed only two wins in five recent matches and lost at home to Independiente in the last meeting.
• Draw: 25% – While draws are possible, both teams have shown a tendency to score and concede, making a stalemate less likely.
• Independiente Del Valle win: 50% – The Ecuadorian side’s four wins in five games, including a 2-0 victory in Colombia, make them the strong favourite.

Based on these numbers, Independiente Del Valle is the team more likely to take all three points.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds are not currently available for this fixture. Nevertheless, the statistical indicators all point to an away win. Independiente Del Valle’s excellent form and the historical pattern of away victories in this fixture support a prediction of an Independiente Del Valle victory. However, football can be unpredictable, so always bet responsibly.