Tristan Suarez - Nueva Chicago prediction 11 July 2026

The Nueva Chicago vs Tristan Suarez prediction for the Primera Nacional match on Jul 11 at 18:00 sees Nueva Chicago as the favorite with a 48% win probability. The home side will look to use their strong home form, while Tristan Suarez aims to continue their solid away run. Read on for our betting tips, odds, and win probability analysis.

Team Form

Nueva Chicago's recent form has been mixed with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches (W-D-L-W-L). At home, they have been impressive: a 2-0 win over Club Atletico Guemes, a 0-0 draw with Atletico Rafaela, and a 2-0 victory against Chacarita Juniors. Their only recent home defeat was a 1-0 loss at San Martin De San Juan back in early June.

Tristan Suarez have drawn three of their last five outings (L-D-W-D-D). Their most recent match was a 1-0 away loss to Temperley. Before that, they secured a 1-0 win at Deportivo Maipu and drew 0-0 at Chacarita Juniors. The team has been difficult to beat, with only one loss in the last five.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met twice in recent history. Nueva Chicago hold the edge with one win and one draw. The most recent encounter on Feb 21, 2026 ended in a 0-0 stalemate. In 2022, Nueva Chicago won a thrilling 4-3 away match. So far, Tristan Suarez have not beaten Nueva Chicago.

League Table Positions

Tristan Suarez sit 6th in the overall Primera Nacional standings with 30 points from 19 games (7 wins, 9 draws, 3 losses). They are particularly strong on the road, ranked 3rd in the away table with 16 points from 10 away matches (4 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses). Nueva Chicago are outside the top 12, indicating a lower position. Their exact rank is not available, but they will rely on home advantage to close the gap.

Win Probability: Nueva Chicago or Tristan Suarez?

Based on the odds, team form, head-to-head record, and league positions, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Nueva Chicago win: 48%
• Draw: 32%
• Tristan Suarez win: 20%

The bookmakers' odds implied a 45.8% chance for a home win, 33.7% for a draw, and 20.5% for an away win after removing the margin. We adjusted slightly upward for Nueva Chicago due to their strong home performances and unbeaten H2H record. Tristan Suarez's tendency to draw (9 draws in 19 league games) increases the draw probability. Overall, Nueva Chicago are the more likely winners, but a draw is a real possibility.

Odds & Match Prediction

The best available odds for this Primera Nacional fixture are: Nueva Chicago 2.05, draw 2.79, Tristan Suarez 4.57. Bookmakers clearly see Nueva Chicago as the favorite. Our prediction aligns with the stats: Nueva Chicago to win, but with caution. A low-scoring affair could end in a draw, given both teams' recent defensive records. For betting tips, the home win offers value, while the draw is also worth considering.