San Jose Earthquakes II - North Texas SC prediction 19 July 2026

The North Texas SC vs San Jose Earthquakes II prediction for July 19, 2026, points to a home victory in this MLS Next Pro matchup. San Jose Earthquakes II enters as a solid favorite, with our win probability calculation giving them a 50% chance to take all three points. North Texas SC faces an uphill battle, with only a 20% probability of winning, while the draw sits at 30%.

Team Form

San Jose Earthquakes II has won three of their last five matches (W-W-L-W-L), showing strong offensive form. They scored 14 goals in that run, including a dominant 6-1 home victory over Sporting Kansas City II and a 3-0 win over Real Maryland Monarchs. The only defeats came against Tacoma Defiance (0-1) and Vancouver Whitecaps II (2-3 away).

North Texas SC managed just one win in their last five (L-W-D-L-D). After a 3-0 home win over Saint Louis II, they suffered a 0-1 loss at Colorado Rapids 2, a 0-2 loss at Saint Louis II, and two draws – 1-1 at Vancouver Whitecaps II and 2-2 at home against San Jose Earthquakes II themselves. The visitors lack consistency away from home.

Head-to-Head Record

The all-time head-to-head between these sides slightly favors San Jose Earthquakes II. In seven meetings, San Jose II has 3 wins, North Texas SC has 2, and there have been 2 draws. The most recent clash, on May 24, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw. Before that, San Jose II thrashed North Texas SC 3-0 at home on October 20, 2025. The head-to-head record and home advantage give the hosts a clear psychological edge.

League Table Positions

Neither side appears in the top 12 of the MLS Next Pro overall standings, indicating both are mid-to-lower table sides. San Jose Earthquakes II and North Texas SC are not listed among the top home or away performers, so league position data is sparse. However, the hosts’ home form and the visitors’ poor road record reinforce the probability tilt toward a home win.

Win Probability: North Texas SC or San Jose Earthquakes II?

Based on the available odds, recent form, head-to-head results, and the home/away factor, we have calculated the following win probabilities:

• San Jose Earthquakes II win: 50%
• Draw: 30%
• North Texas SC win: 20%

These percentages are derived from the implied market odds (average home 1.64, draw 2.61, away 3.87), normalized to remove the bookmaker margin, and then adjusted to reflect San Jose II’s superior form, H2H edge, and home advantage. North Texas SC’s two draws in their last five and the head-to-head draw in May 2026 justify a relatively high draw probability, but the most likely match outcome is a home win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers clearly see San Jose Earthquakes II as the favorite. The average odds across three major books are 1.64 for a home win, 2.61 for a draw, and 3.87 for an away win. Our North Texas SC vs San Jose Earthquakes II prediction, based on the stats, is a home victory. San Jose Earthquakes II’s recent scoring power and North Texas SC’s road struggles make this a sensible betting tip, though the draw remains a live possibility. For those looking at the total goals or other betting tips, the hosts’ recent high-scoring matches suggest a decent chance of over 2.5 goals.