Newmarket - North Lakes United prediction 22 July 2026
Newmarket
North Lakes UnitedNewmarketIpswich KnightsNorth BrisbaneNewmarketSpringfield UnitedNewmarketNewmarketLogan RoosUniversity of QueenslandNewmarketNewmarketNorth PineMount Gravatt HawksNewmarketNewmarketMoggillYeronga EaglesNewmarketRedcliffeNewmarketPeninsula PowerNewmarketIpswich KnightsNewmarketNewmarketNorth BrisbaneCarinaNewmarketNambour YandinaNewmarketNorth Lakes UnitedRedcliffeIpswich KnightsNorth Lakes UnitedNorth Lakes UnitedNorth BrisbaneCarinaNorth Lakes UnitedNorth Lakes UnitedSpringfield UnitedLogan RoosNorth Lakes UnitedNorth Lakes UnitedUniversity of QueenslandNorth PineNorth Lakes UnitedNorth Lakes UnitedMount Gravatt HawksMoggillNorth Lakes UnitedNorth Lakes UnitedYeronga EaglesRedcliffeNorth Lakes UnitedNorth Lakes UnitedIpswich KnightsUniversity of QueenslandNorth Lakes UnitedNorth BrisbaneNorth Lakes United| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | 3.10 | 5.50 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newmarket | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26:8 | +18 | 22 |
| 2 |  Springfield United | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22:13 | +9 | 22 |
| 3 |  Virginia United | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 31:10 | +21 | 21 |
| 4 |  North Pine | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21:17 | +4 | 19 |
| 5 |  Mount Gravatt Hawks | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22:14 | +8 | 15 |
| 6 |  Carina | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20:15 | +5 | 15 |
| 7 |  Ipswich Knights | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 20:16 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 |  Yeronga Eagles | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 23:22 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 |  Redcliffe | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 23:30 | -7 | 10 |
| 10 |  North Brisbane | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7:18 | -11 | 6 |
| 11 |  University of Queensland | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13:22 | -9 | 4 |
| 12 |  Centenary Stormers | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8:23 | -15 | 4 |
| 13 |  Bayside United | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6:34 | -28 | 0 |
Newmarket vs North Lakes United Prediction (Jul 22)
The Newmarket vs North Lakes United prediction for this Queensland Premier League 3 fixture on Jul 22, 2026, at 09:30 points strongly towards a home win. Based on league standings, recent form, and bookmaker odds, Newmarket has a 65% chance of winning, while North Lakes United sits at just 13%.
Team Form
Newmarket enters this match unbeaten in their last five outings (W, D, W, D, D). Their most recent result was a commanding 5-1 away victory over North Brisbane on Jul 11. Prior to that, they drew 2-2 at Springfield United and beat Logan Roos 5-2 at home. The only slight concern is three draws in that five-match stretch, but they remain hard to beat.
North Lakes United has struggled, with a form line of L, L, D, L, W. They lost 1-2 at home to Redcliffe on Jul 18, fell 1-2 at Ipswich Knights, and were thrashed 6-1 at Carina. Their lone win came against Springfield United (5-1 at home) on Jun 21. Away from home, they have been particularly vulnerable.
Head-to-Head Record
There is no prior head-to-head record between Newmarket and North Lakes United. This will be the first meeting between the two sides, so historical matchups offer no guidance.
League Table Positions
Newmarket sits top of the Queensland Premier League 3 table with 22 points from 9 matches (7 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). They have scored 26 goals and conceded only 8. At home, they boast a perfect record: 4 wins from 4, with 17 goals for and just 3 against. North Lakes United does not appear in the top 12 of the league standings, indicating a much lower position and a significant gap in quality.
Win Probability: Newmarket or North Lakes United?
After removing the bookmaker margin from the 1X2 odds (home 1.55, draw 3.10, away 5.50), the implied probabilities are 56.1% for a Newmarket win, 28.1% for a draw, and 15.8% for a North Lakes United victory. Adjusting for Newmarket's dominant home form, top league position, and North Lakes United's poor recent results and lower table standing, the true probabilities shift further in the home side's favour.
Final win probabilities:
- Newmarket win: 65%
- Draw: 22%
- North Lakes United win: 13%
Newmarket is clearly the more likely winner, with a draw the next most probable outcome.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers have priced Newmarket as the strong favourite at 1.55, with the draw at 3.10 and an away win for North Lakes United at 5.50. These odds reflect the gulf in class between the league leaders and a side struggling near the bottom. Based on the stats, the safest prediction is a home win for Newmarket. The high probability of a draw (22%) also suggests that a low-scoring match or a stalemate cannot be ruled out, but the value lies with the home side.
Newmarket vs North Lakes United — FAQ
- Who will win Newmarket vs North Lakes United?
- Newmarket is the clear favourite with a 65% win probability. North Lakes United has only a 13% chance of winning, while the draw sits at 22%. The home side's perfect home record and top league position give them a decisive edge.
- What is the win probability for Newmarket?
- Newmarket has a 65% chance of winning this match. This figure is based on bookmaker odds adjusted for their strong home form (4 wins from 4 at home) and North Lakes United's poor recent results.
- When is the Newmarket vs North Lakes United match?
- The match is scheduled for Jul 22, 2026, at 09:30. It is a Queensland Premier League 3 fixture taking place in Australia.
- What are the odds for Newmarket vs North Lakes United?
- The current 1X2 odds are: Newmarket win at 1.55, draw at 3.10, and North Lakes United win at 5.50. These odds show Newmarket as the strong favourite.