Philadelphia Union - New York Red Bulls prediction 22 July 2026
Philadelphia Union
New York Red BullsPhiladelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 33:11 | +22 | 39 |
| 2 |  Inter Miami CF | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 42:30 | +12 | 34 |
| 3 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 37:16 | +21 | 32 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 34:19 | +15 | 32 |
| 5 |  Los Angeles FC | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 30:18 | +12 | 30 |
| 6 |  Chicago Fire | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 29:19 | +10 | 26 |
| 7 |  New England Revolution | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 22:18 | +4 | 26 |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 27:22 | +5 | 26 |
| 9 |  FC Dallas | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 32:24 | +8 | 26 |
| 10 |  Seattle Sounders | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 19:19 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 |  FC Cincinnati | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 40:40 | 0 | 23 |
| 12 |  Houston Dynamo | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 20:24 | -4 | 23 |
| 13 |  New York City | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 27:22 | +5 | 22 |
| 14 |  Charlotte FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 26:25 | +1 | 22 |
| 15 | New York Red Bulls | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 26:35 | -9 | 22 |
| 16 |  Saint Louis City | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 22:23 | -1 | 22 |
| 17 |  Minnesota United FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 19:24 | -5 | 22 |
| 18 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 23:28 | -5 | 20 |
| 19 |  D.C. United | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 22:26 | -4 | 19 |
| 20 |  Colorado Rapids | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 26:24 | +2 | 19 |
| 21 |  Portland Timbers | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 29:31 | -2 | 18 |
| 22 |  Orlando City | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 27:44 | -17 | 17 |
| 23 |  San Diego FC | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 30:28 | +2 | 17 |
| 24 |  Austin FC | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 22:32 | -10 | 17 |
| 25 |  Columbus Crew | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22:25 | -3 | 16 |
| 26 |  Toronto FC | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 22:29 | -7 | 16 |
| 27 |  Montreal Impact | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22:32 | -10 | 15 |
| 28 |  Sporting Kansas City | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 18:40 | -22 | 14 |
| 29 |  Atlanta United | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 16:26 | -10 | 12 |
| 30 | Philadelphia Union | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 21:31 | -10 | 10 |
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls Prediction (Jul 22)
The Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls prediction for July 22, 2026, points towards a home victory in this MLS clash at Subaru Park. Based on our analysis of the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, Philadelphia Union has a 52% chance of winning, while New York Red Bulls has a 22% chance, and the draw is at 26%.
Team Form
Philadelphia Union's recent form is a major concern heading into this fixture. They have failed to win any of their last five matches, recording two draws and three losses. Their last outing was a heavy 6-4 defeat away to Inter Miami CF. At home, they managed a 1-1 draw with Columbus Crew and a 0-0 stalemate against Nashville, but suffered defeats on the road to Orlando City and New England Revolution.
New York Red Bulls arrive in significantly better shape. They have won three of their last five matches, with one draw and one loss. Their recent away performances have been particularly impressive, securing victories at Sporting Kansas City (2-1) and Chicago Fire (3-1). Their only blip was a surprising 0-2 home loss to FC Dallas, but they bounced back with a 3-2 home win over Columbus Crew.
Head-to-Head Record
The historical head-to-head record heavily favors Philadelphia Union. In 39 previous meetings, the Union have won 15 times, New York Red Bulls have won 8, and there have been 16 draws. The most recent encounters underscore Philadelphia's dominance, especially at home. In their last five matches, Philadelphia Union have won three and drawn one. Notably, the last two MLS meetings at Subaru Park ended in 2-0 and 4-1 victories for the Union.
League Table Positions
New York Red Bulls sit 11th in the overall MLS standings with 22 points from 15 matches, having scored 25 goals and conceded 32. Their away form is a relative strength, ranking 8th in the league with 11 points from 8 road games. Philadelphia Union are not listed in the top 12 of the overall standings, nor do they appear in the top 8 for home or away records, indicating a difficult season so far.
Win Probability: Philadelphia Union or New York Red Bulls?
Our calculated win probability is based on bookmaker odds, adjusted for recent form and historical data. Philadelphia Union has a 52% chance of winning, the draw is at 26%, and New York Red Bulls has a 22% chance. The odds imply a strong home favorite, but Philadelphia's terrible form (no wins in five) tempers that confidence. New York's strong away record and the Union's absence from the top of the table suggest the visitors have a solid chance of taking a point, making the draw a realistic outcome.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers see Philadelphia Union as the clear favorite, with best home win odds around 1.70. The draw is priced between 2.42 and 4.20, while an away win for New York Red Bulls is offered at odds as high as 4.20. Based on the stats, the most likely outcome is a narrow home win, but given Philadelphia's struggles, a low-scoring draw is a strong secondary possibility. The value may lie in the draw market considering the home team's lack of wins and the visitors' resilient away form.
Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls — FAQ
- Who will win Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
- Based on our analysis, Philadelphia Union has a 52% chance of winning, while New York Red Bulls has a 22% chance, and the draw is at 26%. Despite poor recent form, Philadelphia's strong home record in this head-to-head fixture makes them the most likely winner.
- What is the win probability for Philadelphia Union?
- Philadelphia Union has a 52% probability of winning the match. This is calculated from bookmaker odds, adjusted for their dominant head-to-head record at Subaru Park, though their current form of no wins in five matches reduces their overall chances.
- When is the Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls match?
- The match is scheduled for July 22, 2026, with a kick-off time of 23:30. It is an MLS fixture being played at Subaru Park in Chester, USA.
- What are the odds for Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
- The available pre-match odds show Philadelphia Union as the favorite with a best price of 1.70 for a home win. The draw is offered at odds between 2.42 and 4.20, and a New York Red Bulls away win is priced as high as 4.20.