New England Revolution - Orlando City prediction 29 April 2026

The New England Revolution vs Orlando City prediction is for the Open Cup match on April 29, 2026. Based on our analysis of head-to-head records and recent form, Orlando City enters as the favorite with a 42% win probability, while the home side New England Revolution has a 34% chance and a draw sits at 24%.

Team Form: New England Revolution and Orlando City

New England Revolution's last five results show a mixed run: D (vs Widzew Lodz), L (vs Charlotte FC), W (vs Minnesota United FC), L (vs Nashville), W (vs Philadelphia Union). They have scored in three of those matches but also conceded nine goals across the five games.

Orlando City's recent form is equally inconsistent: L (vs FC Cincinnati), W (vs Atlanta United in Open Cup), D (vs Atlanta United in MLS), W (vs Philadelphia Union), L (vs Montreal Impact). Both sides posted two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five outings, making form a very even factor heading into this match.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head (excluding this fixture) spans 33 matches: New England Revolution 11 wins, Orlando City 7 wins, and 15 draws. However, the recent meetings tell a different story. In their last four encounters (since 2023), Orlando is unbeaten with three wins and one draw, including a 2-1 away win and a 3-1 friendly victory.

Win Probability: New England Revolution or Orlando City?

The probability breakdown for this match is:
- New England Revolution win: 34%
- Draw: 24%
- Orlando City win: 42%

This calculation weights both teams' recent form (40%), historical head-to-head (40% — equally divided between all-time record and last four meetings), and home advantage (20%). Despite New England's overall historical edge, Orlando's recent dominance in the fixture (3 wins in the last 4) and the balanced form give the visitors a slight edge. Home advantage adds a few points to New England's probability but not enough to make them favorites.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available for this match, as the market is not currently offered. Based purely on statistics and head-to-head data, the most likely outcome is an Orlando City win (42% chance). A draw (24%) is less probable than in typical matches due to Orlando's recent decisive results against New England. Our match prediction therefore leans towards an away victory.