Nesebar - Sozopol prediction 1 April 2026

The Nesebar vs Sozopol prediction for their 3rd League fixture on April 01, 2026 at 14:00 UTC strongly points towards a home win. Based on the available team form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, Nesebar enters the match as the clear favorite with a 55% win probability, while the draw sits at 25% and a Sozopol victory is rated at 20%.

Team Form

Nesebar's recent results show a resilient squad. In their last five outings, the form line reads D, D, D, W, W. They drew three consecutive friendlies — 1-1 away to Spartak Varna on Jul 08, 1-1 away to Ludogorets Razgrad II on Jul 01, and 2-2 away to Chernomorets Burgas on Jun 27. In competitive 3rd League action, they secured emphatic home wins: 8-1 against Asenovets on May 27 and 6-1 against Spartak Plovdiv on May 16. That attacking firepower, especially at home, makes them a threat.

Sozopol's last five matches produced W, D, L, W, W. They started with a 1-0 home win over Sayana Haskovo on May 16, followed by a 0-0 draw away to Lokomotiv Plovdiv II on May 13. A 1-3 home defeat to Neftochimic Burgas on May 09 was a setback, but they bounced back with a 4-1 away win at Asenovets on Apr 25 and a 4-0 home win over Zagorets Nova Zagora on Apr 17. Away form has been mixed, with one draw and two wins in the last three road trips.

Head-to-Head Record

The H2H record heavily favors Nesebar. In 15 meetings, Nesebar has won 10 times, Sozopol only once, and 4 matches ended in draws. The most recent clash, on April 01, 2026, finished 0-0. Prior to that, Nesebar won 2-1 away in the Cup on Aug 27, 2025, and 2-0 at home in the Cup on Nov 08, 2023. Sozopol's lone victory came in a friendly on Jan 29, 2020 (1-0). Nesebar’s dominance, especially in competitive fixtures, is a key factor in the win probability.

League Table Positions

The provided standings for the 3rd League do not include Nesebar or Sozopol, so direct league positions cannot be compared. The table features the top 12 teams of the division, with Chernomorets Balchik leading. Without positional data for the two sides, the analysis relies solely on form and H2H.

Win Probability: Nesebar or Sozopol?

Taking all available data into account, we calculate the following win probabilities:

• Nesebar win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• Sozopol win: 20%

This estimation is based on the inverse odds method adjusted for team form and head-to-head record. Since no bookmaker odds are available, the base probabilities are derived from the H2H dominance (10 wins for Nesebar vs 1 for Sozopol) and the current form. Nesebar is unbeaten in five matches (two wins, three draws) and has a strong home scoring record. Sozopol’s form is good but includes a loss, and their away performances are inconsistent. Home advantage adds further weight to the home side. Therefore, Nesebar is the more likely winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

No betting odds are provided in the dataset for this fixture, so we cannot comment on specific bookmaker prices. However, based on the stats, Nesebar is the clear favorite. The predicted outcome leans toward a home win, but the draw is a real possibility given the last H2H result and Nesebar’s recent sequence of draws. A low-scoring match could be on the cards, but the home side’s attacking form in league matches suggests they have the edge. Our final prediction: Nesebar to win, but cautious bettors may consider the draw as a safety net.