Guarani SP - Nautico PE prediction 4 October 2025

This Nautico PE vs Guarani SP prediction previews the Serie C clash on Oct 04, 2025, at 20:00. According to our analysis, Guarani SP is the favorite with a 45% win probability, while a draw stands at 35% and Nautico PE has a 20% chance. Read on for team form, head-to-head stats, league table context, and our betting tips.

Team Form

Nautico PE Form

Nautico PE's recent form is poor, with no wins in their last five matches (D1 L4). They managed just two draws: a 0-0 home draw against Juventude RS and a 2-2 away draw at Gremio Novorizontino SP. The three losses were 0-1 at home to Goias GO, 3-4 away to Vila Nova GO, and 0-1 at home to Fortaleza CE. In that stretch, they scored only 5 goals and conceded 10.

Guarani SP Form

Guarani SP comes into this match in much better shape, unbeaten in four of their last five (W2 D2 L1). Their two wins were at home: 2-1 vs Ser Caxias RS and a dominant 5-0 thrashing of Amazonas AM. They drew 0-0 with Floresta CE and 1-1 at Figueirense SC, with the only defeat a 0-2 loss at Confianca SE. The team has scored 8 goals and conceded 4 in these five games.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Nautico PE lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Guarani SP's 4, along with 3 draws. However, recent meetings have been more even. In the last five head-to-head fixtures:

• Oct 04, 2025: Guarani SP 1-1 Nautico PE (Serie C)
• Sep 13, 2025: Nautico PE 0-2 Guarani SP
• Jul 26, 2025: Guarani SP 0-1 Nautico PE
• Aug 13, 2022: Guarani SP 1-0 Nautico PE
• May 04, 2022: Nautico PE 1-1 Guarani SP

In this span, Guarani SP have 2 wins, Nautico PE 1 win, and 2 draws—suggesting a slight edge for the visitors in recent H2H encounters.

League Table Positions

Guarani SP occupy 2nd place in the Serie C standings with 23 points from 13 matches (6 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses). They boast one of the best defensive records, conceding only 11 goals. Nautico PE are not listed in the top 12 of the league table, indicating they are struggling in the lower half of the competition. The table gap underlines the gulf in form and performance between these two sides.

Win Probability: Nautico PE or Guarani SP?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Nautico PE 20%, Draw 35%, Guarani SP 45%. This assessment is based on current form (Nautico winless in five, Guarani two wins in five), head-to-head recent results (Guarani unbeaten in the last two meetings), and league standings (Guarani 2nd, Nautico absent from top 12). The home advantage gives Nautico PE a slight boost, but their scoring struggles make an outright win unlikely. Guarani SP's solid defense and position make them the more probable winner.

Odds & Match Prediction

No pre-match odds are provided in our dataset for this fixture. However, based on the statistics, bookmakers would likely install Guarani SP as the clear favorite. Our final prediction aligns with the data: Guarani SP to win. For cautious bettors, a double chance (Guarani SP or Draw) offers safety, while those seeking higher value can back the away side outright.