MPS Atletico Malmi - TuPS prediction 7 August 2025

MPS Atletico Malmi vs TuPS prediction: the Kolmonen match on Aug 07, 2025, at 16:15 sees MPS Atletico Malmi as the clear favorite with a 55% win probability. The home side's dominant head-to-head record and home advantage give them the edge over TuPS in this Finnish lower-league clash.

Team Form

MPS Atletico Malmi's recent form has been inconsistent. Their last five results show L, W, W, L, L, with defeats in three of the last five outings. The most recent match was a 2-1 away loss at Valtti on Jun 26. Before that, they secured back-to-back wins: a 2-1 home victory over HPS II on Jun 16 and a 6-1 thrashing of Atlantis FC/PM away on Jun 12. However, home defeats to ToTe Toukolan Teras (0-3 on Jun 5) and Pallo-Pojat Juniorit 2 (0-4 on May 29) highlight defensive frailties.

TuPS arrive with mixed form from their last five: W, D, L, W, L. They are coming off a convincing 4-0 home win against TiPS U21 on Jul 2. A goalless draw at Helsingin Ponnistus on Jun 27 also showed resilience, but a heavy 3-6 home loss to SibboV on Jun 17 exposed vulnerabilities. Away from home, they recorded a 5-1 win at Mk-United Vitonen on Jun 5 but lost 2-1 at FC Lahti 69 on May 29.

Head-to-Head Record

MPS Atletico Malmi firmly dominate this fixture. Overall, the head-to-head record shows 6 home wins, 2 draws, and 2 away wins. In the most recent meeting on Aug 07, 2025, MPS won 1-0 at home. Earlier that year, they won 2-1 at TuPS on May 3. Previous encounters also underline MPS's superiority, with wins of 4-2 in 2023, 7-1 in 2022, and a 2-1 away victory in 2022. TuPS have never beaten MPS in the five matches included in the data.

Win Probability: MPS Atletico Malmi or TuPS?

Based on all available factors, we calculate the win probabilities as follows: MPS Atletico Malmi win – 55%, draw – 25%, TuPS win – 20%. Total equals 100%.

MPS Atletico Malmi benefit from a strong head-to-head record (6 wins to 2) and home advantage. Although their form is patchy (two wins in five), the historical dominance over TuPS cannot be ignored. TuPS have shown they can compete – they have two wins and a draw in their last five – but their away record against MPS is poor, and they have never won this fixture in the data period. The 55% probability for a home win reflects the balance of these factors.

Odds & Match Prediction

No specific odds are provided in the data for this fixture, so a direct bookmaker comparison is impossible. However, the statistical analysis clearly points to MPS Atletico Malmi as the more likely winner. The home side's head-to-head supremacy and the added home-ground factor make them the team to back. TuPS will need a major improvement to overturn the trend. Based on the stats, the most probable outcome is a narrow home victory, possibly with under 2.5 total goals given the 1-0 scoreline in the last meeting.