Morocco - Uganda prediction 18 November 2025

The Friendly International clash between Morocco and Uganda takes place on November 18, 2025, at 19:00. Our Morocco vs Uganda prediction sees the home nation as the overwhelming favorite, with an assigned win probability of 75%.

Team Form

Morocco's Recent Run

Morocco’s last five outings: a 2-0 loss to France, a 3-0 win against Canada, a 1-1 draw with the Netherlands, a 4-2 victory over Haiti, and a 1-0 success in Scotland. That yields three wins, one draw, and one defeat—a very respectable set of results against varied opposition. The Atlas Lions have netted nine goals in those matches, showing they can score against anyone. Playing at home, where they recently dismantled Haiti 4-2, further boosts confidence.

Uganda's Struggles

The Cranes enter this fixture in poor shape. Their last five results: a 1-3 loss to Nigeria, a 1-1 draw with Tanzania, a 3-1 defeat to Tunisia, a 0-0 stalemate with Gabon, and no wins. They have conceded eight goals and scored just two over this period. Even more worrying, the two away games in that sequence ended in defeat by two-goal margins. Uganda’s lack of cutting edge and defensive instability pose massive problems against a Moroccan team in rhythm.

Head-to-Head Record

The only previous meeting between Morocco and Uganda was at the 2021 African Cup of Nations, where Morocco triumphed 5-2 in Kampala. That dominant performance underlines the gulf in class and gives Morocco a psychological edge. With a perfect head‑to‑head record, the Atlas Lions will expect to extend their superiority.

Win Probability: Morocco or Uganda?

Factoring in current form, historical results, and the home advantage, we have calculated the following likelihoods for this matchup:

• Morocco to win: 75%
• Draw: 15%
• Uganda to win: 10%

Morocco’s combination of a strong attacking unit and Uganda’s travel sickness makes a home victory the most probable outcome by a wide margin. A draw might occur if Uganda can defend deep, but that seems unlikely given their recent concession rate. An away win would be a huge shock. As a non-competitive friendly, both teams may rotate players, but Morocco's superior depth only solidifies the home win probability.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are available for this Friendly International at the time of writing, but any betting market would heavily favour Morocco. Our final Morocco vs Uganda prediction is a comfortable win for the home side, with a scoreline likely to feature at least two goals for Morocco. A bet on a home victory is the standout value pick, while a punt on over 2.5 total goals could also be attractive given Uganda’s recent defensive leaks.