Serpa - Moncarapachense prediction 7 February 2026

The Moncarapachense vs Serpa prediction ahead of their Campeonato de Portugal showdown on Feb 07, 2026, at 15:00 GMT gives the home side a 45% win probability. Moncarapachense enter as favourites based on vastly superior recent form, while a draw is a very real possibility at 35% given the teams' head-to-head history.

Team Form

Moncarapachense have produced mixed results in their last five matches (D, L, L, W, W), picking up seven points from a possible 15. Their most recent outing was a 0-0 draw away to O Elvas CAD on Apr 18. Prior to that, they suffered back-to-back 1-0 defeats against Juventude Evora (home) and Louletano (away), but finished strongly with a 2-0 home win over Sintrense and a 3-0 away victory at Portimonense II. At home, Moncarapachense have won two of their last three, keeping two clean sheets in those wins.

Serpa, in stark contrast, have lost all of their last five matches (L, L, L, L, L), conceding 11 goals and scoring just four. Their latest results include a 2-1 defeat at Clube Oriental de Lisboa, a 0-1 home loss against Alverca B, a 3-2 loss away to O Elvas CAD, a 0-3 home thrashing by Juventude Evora, and a 2-1 defeat at Louletano. No team in the league carries worse momentum into this fixture.

Head-to-Head Record

These two sides have met six times, with draws being the dominant outcome. Serpa hold the only victory (a 2-1 win away to Moncarapachense in February 2024), while the other five encounters all ended level, including three 1-1 draws and two 0-0 stalemates. The last meeting, on Feb 07, 2026, at Serpa, finished 1-1. Moncarapachense have yet to beat Serpa on home soil, with all three home H2Hs ending in draws.

Win Probability: Moncarapachense or Serpa?

After analysing the available data, we assign the following outcome probabilities:

• Moncarapachense win: 45%
• Draw: 35%
• Serpa win: 20%

Moncarapachense's higher win chance is underpinned by their superior recent form (2W-1D-2L vs Serpa's five straight losses) and the advantage of playing at home. The substantial draw probability reflects the head-to-head pattern – five of six all-time meetings have finished tied, including all three Moncarapachense home games against Serpa. Serpa's poor run of five defeats makes an away victory unlikely, but their lone H2H victory proves they can cause an upset. The probability assessment does not use bookmaker odds because none were available; instead, it weighs form, H2H history, and home advantage equally.

Moncarapachense vs Serpa Prediction & Odds

At the time of writing, no bookmaker odds have been released for this fixture. Once markets become active, Moncarapachense are expected to be priced as favourites. Our final match prediction is a home win for Moncarapachense, but the high frequency of draws in this fixture (83% of previous meetings) cannot be ignored – backing the draw in the betting could offer value if odds are generous. Punters seeking betting tips should monitor team news and any line-up changes closer to kick‑off.