Fasil Kenema - Mekelakeya Defence Force SC prediction 13 March 2026

The Mekelakeya Defence Force SC vs Fasil Kenema prediction focuses on the Ethiopian Premier League meeting on March 13, 2026, at 12:00. After analyzing team form, head-to-head record, and league standings, Fasil Kenema emerge as the favorites with a 40% win probability. A draw stands at 35%, while Mekelakeya Defence Force SC hold a 25% chance of winning at home.

Team Form

Mekelakeya Defence Force SC come into this match with a poor run of results. In their last five outings they have managed just one victory (1-0 at home to Ethiopian Insurance Medhin on June 21), one draw (0-0 at home to Hadiya Hossana on July 3), and suffered three defeats (2-0 away at Sheger Ketema, 3-0 away at Saint George SC, and a 2-1 home loss to Arba Minch Kenema). Scoring has been an issue, with only two goals in those five games.

Fasil Kenema, by contrast, have recorded three wins in their last five matches. They beat Ethiopian Insurance Medhin 1-0 at home on July 1, Arba Minch Kenema 2-0 at home on June 22, and Hadiya Hossana 1-0 away on June 15. The two losses came against Saint George SC (0-1 away) and Sheger Ketema (0-1 home). Their attack has been modest, but they have kept three clean sheets in that period, highlighting defensive solidity.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these two sides heavily favors Fasil Kenema. Across all competitions, Mekelakeya Defence Force SC have won only once, Fasil Kenema have won seven times, and there have been ten draws. Recent meetings underline this trend: a 4-2 away win for Fasil Kenema on March 12, 2025, a 1-1 draw on January 21, 2025, and two goalless draws—on November 9, 2025, and January 25, 2024. The history suggests that Fasil Kenema rarely lose this fixture, and draws are a very common outcome.

League Table Positions

In the overall Premier League standings, Mekelakeya Defence Force SC sit 10th with 45 points, having won 10, drawn 15, and lost 9 of their 34 matches. Fasil Kenema do not appear in the top 12 of the overall table, but the away standings reveal a different picture. Fasil Kenema rank 5th on the away table with 28 points from 17 away games (7 wins, 7 draws, 3 losses, 21 goals scored and 16 conceded). Meanwhile, Mekelakeya’s home record places them 8th with 23 points (6 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses, 18 goals for and 18 against). The comparison points to Fasil Kenema being the stronger side on the road.

Win Probability: Mekelakeya Defence Force SC or Fasil Kenema?

Based on the available statistics, the win probabilities for this match are calculated as follows: Mekelakeya Defence Force SC have a 25% chance to win, the draw has a 35% chance, and Fasil Kenema have a 40% chance. These numbers reflect Fasil Kenema’s superior recent form (three wins in five), their historically dominant head-to-head record (7 wins to 1), and their impressive away form this season. Mekelakeya’s home advantage is offset by their leaky defense and lack of consistency. The high probability of a draw is supported by the ten draws in eighteen previous meetings.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds for this match are not available in the data. However, based on our analysis, Fasil Kenema are the most likely winner. A draw is the second most probable outcome, and a home win for Mekelakeya Defence Force SC appears the least likely result. The head-to-head record and recent defensive performances suggest this could be a low-scoring affair, with a total goals under 1.5 being a plausible betting angle. Our prediction is Fasil Kenema to win or draw, reflecting the statistical edge they hold over the hosts.