Oberwart - Mattersburg prediction 17 July 2026
Oberwart
MattersburgOberwart
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The Mattersburg vs Oberwart prediction for this Regional Cup clash on July 17, 2026, points to a tight contest. Bookmakers make Mattersburg the favorite with a 46% win probability, but Oberwart’s recent form and head-to-head dominance suggest they are live underdogs. Kick-off is at 17:30, and all the key stats point to an intriguing cup tie.
Team Form
Mattersburg’s last five results: W, L, W, D, L. They beat Austria Wien II 3-1 in a friendly, lost 0-2 to KSV 1919, defeated Jennersdorf 2-0 in the Landesliga, drew 1-1 at St. Margarethen, and suffered a heavy 0-4 home loss to Oberwart in the same competition. That inconsistency, especially the recent cup defeat, raises questions.
Oberwart arrive in better shape: W, L, W, D, W. They thrashed Sturm Graz II 4-0, lost narrowly 2-3 at Rapid Wien II, hammered Kremser 5-2 in the Regional League, drew 2-2 at Wiener Viktoria, and of course beat Mattersburg 4-0 away. Three wins in five, with 13 goals scored, show a team full of confidence.
Head-to-Head Record
The only previous meeting in our data is the Regional Cup match on May 25, 2026, where Oberwart won 4-0 at Mattersburg. That gives Oberwart a 1-0 lead in wins, with no draws. The one-sided nature of that result will be fresh in both teams’ minds.
Win Probability: Mattersburg or Oberwart?
Using the inverse of the 1X2 odds (1.95, 2.62, 4.50) and normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, the base probabilities are: Mattersburg 46%, draw 34%, Oberwart 20%. However, we adjust for the head-to-head record and recent form. Oberwart’s 4-0 away win in the last meeting and their superior form (three wins in five vs two) cannot be ignored. We therefore shift the probabilities to: Mattersburg 42%, draw 33%, Oberwart 25%. Mattersburg remain the most likely winner, but Oberwart have a genuine 1-in-4 chance of causing another upset.
Odds & Match Prediction
The available odds are: home win 1.95, draw 2.62, away win 4.50. Bookmakers see Mattersburg as clear favorites, but the odds on Oberwart are attractive given their recent dominance in this fixture. Based on the stats, the value may lie with the away side or the draw. Our prediction: a closely fought match, with Oberwart’s attacking form making both teams to score a likely outcome. A draw or a narrow Oberwart win cannot be ruled out.
Mattersburg vs Oberwart — FAQ
- Who will win Mattersburg vs Oberwart?
- Mattersburg have a 42% chance of winning, a draw is at 33%, and Oberwart hold a 25% probability. While Mattersburg are the favorites, Oberwart’s 4-0 victory in their last meeting gives them a strong chance of another upset.
- What is the win probability for Mattersburg?
- Mattersburg’s win probability is 42%. This is based on normalized odds (1.95) adjusted for Oberwart’s superior head-to-head record and recent form, which slightly reduces the home side’s edge.
- When is the Mattersburg vs Oberwart match?
- The match is on July 17, 2026, at 17:30 local time. It is a Regional Cup fixture in Austria.
- What are the odds for Mattersburg vs Oberwart?
- The 1X2 odds are: Mattersburg 1.95, draw 2.62, Oberwart 4.50. These odds imply a 46% home win probability before adjustments.
- What is the head-to-head record between Mattersburg and Oberwart?
- In the only recorded meeting, Oberwart beat Mattersburg 4-0 away on May 25, 2026, in the Regional Cup. Oberwart lead the head-to-head 1-0 with no draws.