Pacos Ferreira - Maritimo prediction 4 April 2026

The Segunda Liga match between Maritimo and Pacos Ferreira is set for April 4, 2026, at 13:00 UTC at Estádio da Capital do Móvel. Our Maritimo vs Pacos Ferreira prediction gives the home side a 40% chance of winning, with the draw at 35% and an away win at 25%.

Team Form

Maritimo's last five results (L, L, W, W, L) show a mixed run. They beat Leixoes 3-2 and Benfica B 2-1, but suffered losses to Chaves (1-3), Penafiel (0-1), and SCU Torreense (0-1). Pacos Ferreira posted W, D, L, L, W in their last five, including a 2-1 win over Penafiel, a 1-1 draw at Farense, a 4-3 victory against Chaves, and defeats to СВ Feirense (1-2) and Lusitania Lourosa (0-2).

Head-to-Head Record

In the last four meetings before this fixture, Maritimo won three and drew one. They claimed a 2-0 home win in November 2025, a 2-2 home draw in January 2025, a 2-1 away victory in February 2024, and another 2-0 home win in September 2023. Overall, across 19 previous encounters, Maritimo recorded 11 wins, 4 draws, and Pacos Ferreira won 4.

Win Probability: Maritimo or Pacos Ferreira?

We estimate Maritimo's win probability at 40%, a draw at 35%, and Pacos Ferreira at 25%. This calculation leans on the teams' head-to-head dominance by Maritimo (3 wins in 4 meetings), the home advantage factor, and the relatively balanced recent form of both sides. The high draw probability reflects the tight nature of many of their past clashes.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds were available for this match. Based on our stats-driven analysis, Maritimo is the favorite with a 40% chance of winning. The draw is a very real possibility at 35%, and a Pacos Ferreira win is the least likely outcome. Our tip: a low-risk option would be Maritimo Draw No Bet.