Marcilio Dias SC - Barra SC prediction 22 January 2026

The Marcilio Dias SC vs Barra SC prediction for the Campeonato Catarinense match on Jan 22, 2026, at 22:00 local time, points to a home win for Marcilio Dias SC. Based on our analysis, Marcilio Dias SC has a 45% probability of winning, while Barra SC has a 25% chance, and the draw likelihood is 30%.

Team Form

Marcilio Dias SC come into this match with a recent record of L, D, W, D, D from their last five outings. They managed just one win in that period, alongside three draws and a defeat. Their most recent matches include a 2-0 loss to Portuguesa SP, a 1-1 draw with the same opponent, a 2-1 win over Cascavel PR, a 2-2 draw at Cascavel PR, and a goalless stalemate at IF Sao Joseense PR. The team has struggled to convert draws into victories, scoring only 5 goals in those five games.

Barra SC's recent form is similarly inconsistent: L, W, L, D, L. They recorded only one win, one draw, and three losses. Their last five results feature a 1-2 home loss to Santa Cruz PE, a 2-1 away win at Confianca SE, a 1-2 defeat at Floresta CE, a 1-1 home draw with Amazonas AM, and a 0-1 loss at Ferroviaria SP. With 4 goals scored and 7 conceded in that spell, Barra SC have also found it difficult to string together positive results.

Head-to-Head Record

Looking at the last four encounters between these sides (excluding this specific fixture), the head-to-head record is evenly split with two wins each. Marcilio Dias SC won both of their home matches: 1-0 in July 2025 and 2-0 in February 2025. Barra SC won their home games: 2-1 in May 2025 and 1-0 in January 2024. Notably, all four results were home wins, and there have been no draws in recent meetings. The H2H data underlines the importance of home advantage, with Marcilio Dias SC keeping clean sheets in their two home victories over Barra SC.

League Table Positions

In the Campeonato Catarinense standings, Barra SC sit 7th with 9 points from 6 matches (3 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses), while Marcilio Dias SC are 10th with 6 points (2 wins, 0 draws, 4 losses). Barra SC have a slightly better goal difference (+3 vs 0), but their away form is modest: 1 win and 2 losses in three road games. Marcilio Dias SC's home record is not detailed in the official standings, but their overall 2-win tally suggests they have picked up at least one victory at home. The table gap is small, and the head-to-head home dominance gives Marcilio Dias SC a realistic chance to close the points difference.

Win Probability: Marcilio Dias SC or Barra SC?

Based on all available data, we assign the following win probabilities: Marcilio Dias SC win – 45%, draw – 30%, Barra SC win – 25%. The reasoning combines home advantage, the head-to-head trend where the home team has always won in the last four meetings, and the similar current form of both sides. While Barra SC hold a higher league position, their away record and Marcilio Dias SC's perfect home H2H record tilt the balance toward the hosts. A draw is a real possibility given the teams' tendency to cancel each other out in recent outings, but Marcilio Dias SC are the most likely winners.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmakers' odds are currently available for this match, so we cannot compare market expectations. However, based on the stats, Marcilio Dias SC are the favorites to win. We predict a narrow home victory, but the inconsistent form of both teams means that a draw or even an away win cannot be ruled out. Our final match prediction is a home win, with the 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline — mirroring past H2H results at this venue — being the most probable outcomes.