Madureira RJ - Boavista RJ prediction 16 February 2026

Our Madureira RJ vs Boavista RJ prediction for the Campeonato Carioca clash on Feb 16, 2026, gives Madureira RJ a 45% chance to win. The match kicks off at 00:00 UTC, with the home side entering as the favorite based on recent form and head-to-head dominance.

Team Form

Madureira RJ's last five results show a mixed pattern: W, L, D, L, W. They secured a 1-0 home win over Pouso Alegre MG on Jun 06, but suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat at Agua Santa SP on May 30. A 1-1 draw with Portuguesa RJ and a 3-1 loss to America RJ were followed by a 1-0 victory against Portuguesa SP. This inconsistent form leaves them with two wins, two losses, and one draw in that run.

Boavista RJ are struggling, with a form line of D, L, L, L, D. They drew 0-0 at Botafogo RJ on Feb 28 and 1-1 at Bangu RJ on Feb 08, but lost 3-2 at home to Maringa PR in the Cup, 2-0 at home to Botafogo RJ, and 2-1 away to Madureira RJ on Feb 13. Boavista have not won any of their last five matches.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, the head-to-head record shows 4 home wins, 3 draws, and 7 away wins across all meetings. In the last five encounters, however, Madureira RJ have dominated with three wins and two draws. Boavista RJ have failed to win any of those five, with the most recent being a 2-1 home victory for Madureira on Feb 13, 2026. The previous four results include a 0-0 draw, a 3-0 Madureira win, and two away wins for Madureira (2-0 and 2-1).

League Table Positions

In the Campeonato Carioca overall standings, Madureira RJ sit 6th with 8 points (2W, 2D, 2L, GF5 GA6), while Boavista RJ are 7th also on 8 points (2W, 2D, 2L, GF6 GA8). At home, Madureira have 4 points from three games (1W, 1D, 1L, GF2 GA3), ranking 8th in the home table. Boavista's away record is 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from three trips, with 2 goals scored and 3 conceded, placing them outside the top eight in the away standings.

Win Probability: Madureira RJ or Boavista RJ?

Based on all available data, the win probabilities are: Madureira RJ 45%, draw 30%, Boavista RJ 25%. Madureira's stronger recent form (two wins in five vs Boavista's zero), clear head-to-head superiority (three wins in the last five meetings), and home advantage give them the edge. Boavista's poor away form and ongoing winless streak significantly reduce their chances. A draw remains a realistic outcome given both teams' mid-table positions and Madureira's own inconsistent home results.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for this match are not currently available. Without odds to guide the market sentiment, our prediction relies purely on the stats. Madureira RJ emerge as the likely winners, but the data also points to a competitive fixture where a draw cannot be ruled out. Our final Madureira RJ vs Boavista RJ prediction is a home win, with a 45% probability, making Madureira the value pick if odds become available.