Macara - Mushuc Runa prediction 14 July 2026
Macara
Mushuc RunaMacaraMushuc Runa
Tecnico UniversitarioMacaraMacaraLDU QuitoDeportivo Cuenca JuniorsMacaraLeones Del NorteMacaraAmerica de CaliMacaraEmelecMacaraMacaraAlianza AtleticoMacaraIndependiente Del ValleManta FCMacaraMacaraTigreMacaraOrense SCAlianza AtleticoMacaraMacaraLibertad LojaUniversidad Catolica del EcuadorMacaraMacaraMushuc RunaMushuc RunaIndependiente Del ValleUniversidad Catolica del EcuadorMushuc RunaGualaceo SCMushuc RunaMushuc RunaSD Aucas QuitoMushuc RunaGuayaquil CityLeones Del NorteMushuc RunaMushuc RunaLDU QuitoDelfin SCMushuc RunaMushuc RunaDeportivo CuencaBarcelona GuayaquilMushuc RunaMushuc RunaTecnico UniversitarioMushuc RunaManta FCLibertad LojaMushuc RunaMushuc RunaEmelec- 12'EventT. Minda
- 16'EventM. Tello
MacaraMushuc RunaMushuc RunaMacaraMacaraMushuc RunaMushuc RunaMacaraMushuc RunaMacaraMacaraMushuc RunaMushuc RunaMacaraMushuc RunaMacaraMacaraMushuc RunaMushuc RunaMacaraMacaraMushuc RunaMushuc RunaMacaraMushuc RunaMacaraMushuc RunaMacaraMacaraMushuc RunaMacaraMushuc Runa| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independiente Del Valle | 18 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 40:19 | +21 | 43 |
| 2 |  SD Aucas Quito | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 21:16 | +5 | 32 |
| 3 |  Barcelona Guayaquil | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 20:13 | +7 | 30 |
| 4 |  LDU Quito | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 19:14 | +5 | 28 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Cuenca | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 18:20 | -2 | 27 |
| 6 |  Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 28:18 | +10 | 26 |
| 7 | Macara | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 18:18 | 0 | 26 |
| 8 |  Emelec | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 14:17 | -3 | 24 |
| 9 |  Tecnico Universitario | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 19:19 | 0 | 23 |
| 10 |  Leones Del Norte | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 19:19 | 0 | 23 |
| 11 |  Orense SC | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 22:24 | -2 | 23 |
| 12 |  Guayaquil City | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 16:21 | -5 | 22 |
| 13 | Mushuc Runa | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 23:27 | -4 | 21 |
| 14 |  Libertad | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17:25 | -8 | 18 |
| 15 |  Delfin SC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 10:18 | -8 | 17 |
| 16 |  Manta FC | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 7:23 | -16 | 13 |
Macara vs Mushuc Runa Prediction (July 14, 2026)
The Macara vs Mushuc Runa prediction for July 14, 2026, in Ecuador's Serie A points to a home-favored contest. Macara enters the match as the likely winner with a 45% probability, while the draw stands at 30% and Mushuc Runa at 25%, based on form, standings, and odds.
Team Form
Macara comes into this fixture unbeaten in their last five matches, recording three wins and two draws. Their most recent results include a 2-0 away victory against Tecnico Universitario, a 1-0 home win over LDU Quito, and a 1-0 cup win at Deportivo Cuenca Juniors. They also drew 1-1 at Leones Del Norte and 0-0 at America de Cali in the Copa Sudamericana.
Mushuc Runa's form is more mixed: one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five. They suffered a heavy 1-4 home defeat to Independiente Del Valle, then won 3-2 away at Universidad Catolica del Ecuador. A 0-1 cup loss at Gualaceo SC was followed by back-to-back home draws: 0-0 against SD Aucas Quito and 2-2 with Guayaquil City.
Head-to-Head Record
In 15 previous meetings, Macara has won 2, Mushuc Runa 4, and there have been 9 draws. The last five encounters show a tight rivalry: a 0-0 draw in March 2026, a 2-1 home win for Macara in August 2025, a 4-3 home win for Mushuc Runa in May 2025, a 2-1 home win for Mushuc Runa in November 2024, and a 3-0 home win for Macara in September 2022. Draws dominate the history, but Mushuc Runa has won three of the last four.
League Table Positions
Macara sits 7th in the Serie A overall standings with 26 points (7 wins, 5 draws, 6 losses; goals for 18, against 18). Mushuc Runa is outside the top 12. At home, Macara has collected 14 points from 9 games, while Mushuc Runa's away record is not among the league's top eight, indicating a clear home advantage in this matchup.
Win Probability: Macara or Mushuc Runa?
Based on the available odds, form, and head-to-head data, we calculate the following win probabilities:
- Macara win: 45%
- Draw: 30%
- Mushuc Runa win: 25%
The bookmaker odds imply a Macara win probability around 42%, a draw at 36%, and a Mushuc Runa win at 22%. We have adjusted these figures upward for Macara due to their unbeaten run and home advantage, while the draw probability remains elevated because of the historically high number of stalemates between these sides. Macara is the more likely winner, but a draw is a significant possibility.
Odds & Match Prediction
The average pre-match odds across six bookmakers are 2.00 for a Macara victory, 2.31 for the draw, and 3.77 for a Mushuc Runa win. Bookmakers clearly see Macara as the favorite. Based on the stats, a home win is the most probable outcome, but the high draw rate in head-to-head meetings suggests caution. Our final Macara vs Mushuc Runa prediction is a narrow home victory, with a draw as the main alternative.
Macara vs Mushuc Runa — FAQ
- Who will win Macara vs Mushuc Runa?
- Macara has a 45% chance of winning, the draw is at 30%, and Mushuc Runa has a 25% chance. Macara is the favorite due to stronger recent form and home advantage, but the high number of draws in past meetings makes a stalemate a realistic outcome.
- What is the win probability for Macara?
- Macara has a 45% win probability. This figure is based on their unbeaten run of five matches (three wins, two draws), a higher league position (7th vs outside top 12), and home field, adjusted from the average bookmaker odds of 2.00 for a home win.
- When is the Macara vs Mushuc Runa match?
- The match is scheduled for July 14, 2026, at 21:30 UTC. It is a Serie A fixture in Ecuador.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The average pre-match odds are 2.00 for a Macara win, 2.31 for a draw, and 3.77 for a Mushuc Runa victory. These odds reflect Macara as the clear favorite.