Ludogorets Razgrad - Malmo FF prediction 24 September 2025

Our Ludogorets Razgrad vs Malmo FF prediction for the UEFA Europa League clash on Sep 24, 2025, gives the home side a 43% win probability. The match kicks off at 19:00, and the stats point to a tight encounter where Ludogorets hold a fractional edge.

Team Form

Ludogorets Razgrad enter the match with a mixed bag of results from their last five outings: D, W, D, W, L. That sequence shows two wins, two draws, and one defeat. In their most recent competitive fixtures, they drew 0-0 at home with Lokomotiv Plovdiv (1st League) and beat CSKA Sofia 1-0 at home. A 2-2 away friendly draw with FC Botosani and a 7-4 friendly win over Etar Veliko Tarnovo further underline their ability to find the net, though a 1-0 loss at CSKA 1948 Sofia in mid-May highlighted some vulnerability on the road.

Malmo FF's last five results read: W, D, W, L, L. The two defeats came in Allsvenskan action, losing 2-3 at home to Vasteras SK and being thumped 4-1 away at Hammarby IF. They bounced back with a 5-2 home win over Halmstads BK and a 1-0 away victory at Degerfors IF, along with a 2-2 friendly draw against Midtjylland. Overall, Malmo’s away form shows inconsistency, which could be a factor in this European fixture.

Head-to-Head Record

The two sides clashed most recently in the 2021 UEFA Champions League qualifiers. On Aug 24, 2021, Ludogorets Razgrad won 2-1 at home, while on Aug 18, 2021, Malmo FF returned the favour with a 2-0 home victory. Those two matches highlight how both teams can be dominant in front of their own fans, and a similarly close contest is expected here.

Win Probability: Ludogorets Razgrad or Malmo FF?

Based on recent form, the head-to-head record, and home advantage, we estimate the following outcome probabilities:

• Ludogorets Razgrad win: 43%
• Draw: 29%
• Malmo FF win: 28%

Ludogorets get the slight nod because they have lost only once in their last five matches and have home soil on their side. Malmo’s two away losses in their last five, combined with a less convincing overall form, make them the marginal underdogs. However, the history shows both teams are capable of beating each other, so a draw is a very real possibility. The probabilities sum to 100% and reflect the tight nature of this matchup.

Odds & Match Prediction

Detailed odds for the 1X2 market are not available in the data we hold for this fixture. That said, based on the underlying stats, bookmakers would likely see Ludogorets Razgrad as a narrow favourite, with Malmo FF close behind and a draw considered a strong alternative. Our analysis aligns with that picture—Ludogorets have a higher chance on paper, but the margin is small. The match outcome could easily hinge on a single moment, and punters should approach with caution. The safest betting tip from the numbers is to expect a tight match where both teams score opportunities are limited.