Wierzyca Pelplin - LKS Pogon Lebork prediction 4 October 2025
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LKS Pogon Lebork vs Wierzyca Pelplin prediction: the IV Liga clash on Oct 04, 2025, at 13:00 sees home side LKS Pogon Lebork as the narrow favorite with a 40% win probability. Both teams have shown mixed form, making this a tight contest.
Team Form
LKS Pogon Lebork's last five results: L, W, D, D, L. They have managed one win, two draws, and two defeats, scoring 9 goals and conceding 9 in that span. At home, they drew 1-1 with Czarni Pruszcz Gdanski and Bytovia Bytow, showing resilience but lacking a cutting edge.
Wierzyca Pelplin's last five: W, D, L, L, W. They recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses, with a goal difference of 6-9. Notably, they beat Arka Gdynia II 2-0 at home and lost heavily away to Arka Gdynia II (5-2) and Gedania Gdansk (3-0). Their away form is inconsistent.
Head-to-Head Record
These teams have met twice in recent IV Liga history. The head-to-head stands at one home win each: LKS Pogon Lebork won 5-2 at home in March 2025, while Wierzyca Pelplin triumphed 3-2 at home in October 2025. No draws have occurred, and the home side has always prevailed.
Win Probability: LKS Pogon Lebork or Wierzyca Pelplin?
Based on available data, we calculate the following outcome probabilities:
- LKS Pogon Lebork win: 40%
- Draw: 30%
- Wierzyca Pelplin win: 30%
LKS Pogon Lebork enjoys home advantage, where they are unbeaten in two of their last three home games (two draws). Wierzyca Pelplin's away form is shaky, with two heavy defeats in their last three road trips. The head-to-head pattern strongly favors the home team. However, Wierzyca's slightly better overall recent results (7 points vs. 5 points from last 5 games) keep the contest balanced. LKS Pogon Lebork is the more likely winner, but a draw is a very realistic outcome.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers' odds are currently unavailable for this fixture. Our prediction, drawn from form and head-to-head stats, leans towards a home win for LKS Pogon Lebork. The match could be close, and a 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline in favor of the hosts is plausible. A draw is the second most probable result, so caution is advised for bettors.
LKS Pogon Lebork vs Wierzyca Pelplin โ FAQ
- Who will win LKS Pogon Lebork vs Wierzyca Pelplin?
- LKS Pogon Lebork has a 40% chance to win, while Wierzyca Pelplin has a 30% chance. The draw probability is 30%. The home side is the slight favorite based on home advantage and head-to-head trends.
- What is the win probability for LKS Pogon Lebork?
- LKS Pogon Lebork has a 40% win probability. This is derived from their home advantage, recent form (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in last five), and the head-to-head record where the home team won both previous meetings.
- When is the LKS Pogon Lebork vs Wierzyca Pelplin match?
- The match takes place on Oct 04, 2025, at 13:00 local time. It is a IV Liga fixture in Poland.
- What are the odds for the match?
- Odds for this match are not currently available. Once bookmakers release the 1X2 market, they are expected to reflect LKS Pogon Lebork as the marginal favorite.