Legia Warszawa - Wisla Plock prediction 21 February 2026

The Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Plock prediction for February 21, 2026, points firmly towards a home victory in this Ekstraklasa clash. Kick-off is set for 19:30, and based on current form, head-to-head dominance and the home factor, Legia Warszawa enters the match with a 65% win probability. Wisla Plock’s slim chances, just 15%, reflect their recent struggles, while a draw is priced at 20%. Our analysis breaks down the key stats to help you decide who will win.

Team Form

Legia Warszawa is flying high with four wins and one draw in their last five outings. They ended the Ekstraklasa season with a 4-0 thrashing of Motor Lublin and have carried that momentum into summer friendlies, beating Trencin (1-0) and Hapoel Be'er Sheva (3-1), drawing 2-2 with Nurnberg and overcoming Bayern Munich II 2-0. That sequence shows defensive solidity and attacking sharpness. In their last 10 competitive home games, they’ve been formidable.

Wisla Plock’s form paints a starkly different picture. They have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five. A 3-0 friendly win over Polonia Warszawa aside, their Ekstraklasa form has collapsed: 0-4 vs Motor Lublin, 0-1 vs Gornik Zabrze, 3-0 loss at Pogon Szczecin and a 2-2 draw at Lech Poznan. Away from home, they’ve looked vulnerable, failing to keep a clean sheet in their last four competitive matches.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record also favours Legia Warszawa. In the last five meetings, the home side has emerged victorious four times, with only two away wins recorded. At the Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Legia have won both previous Ekstraklasa encounters (2-0 and 2-1). The most recent meeting, on February 21, 2026, ended 2-1 to Legia, underlining their edge. Wisla Plock’s sole win in this fixture came back in August 2025 (1-0 at home). Overall, Legia have scored in every home H2H and consistently controlled possession.

Win Probability: Legia Warszawa or Wisla Plock?

We calculate the match outcome probabilities as follows:

• Legia Warszawa win: 65%
• Draw: 20%
• Wisla Plock win: 15%

This distribution is driven by Legia’s superb form (W4 D1 L0) versus Wisla’s poor run (W1 D1 L3), the strong home advantage evident in the H2H (4 home wins in 6 meetings), and the confidence that comes from playing at home in front of a passionate crowd. Wisla Plock would need a dramatic improvement to overturn these probabilities.

Odds & Match Prediction

While exact 1X2 odds are not available in our current dataset, the betting market would undoubtedly list Legia Warszawa as heavy favourites. On a neutral assessment, a home win is the most likely outcome, and any odds above 1.50 for Legia would offer value. A Legia Warszawa to win and under 3.5 total goals bet also looks attractive, given their controlled style. Based on all the stats, our prediction is a comfortable 2-0 or 2-1 home win for Legia Warszawa.