Alvechurch - Leamington prediction 13 September 2025

The Leamington vs Alvechurch prediction for this FA Cup tie on September 13, 2025, at 14:00 points to a tight contest. Based on the available data, Leamington holds a 42% win probability, the draw sits at 28%, and Alvechurch has a 30% chance of causing an upset.

Team Form

Leamington’s last five results show inconsistency — two wins, two defeats and one draw (D W L L W). Their most recent outing was a 0-0 friendly draw with Walsall, following a 3-1 away victory over Sutton Coldfield Town. In the National League North, they had mixed results with a 4-1 loss at Buxton and a 2-3 home reverse to Kidderminster Harriers, but did beat Southport 2-1 away.

Alvechurch enter the match with a slightly more stable run of form: three draws, one win and one loss (D D L W D). They drew 1-1 at home against both Solihull Moors and Leiston, lost 2-3 at Real Bedford, but beat Royston Town 1-0 and drew 1-1 at Stourbridge. The Southern League Premier Division side has proven hard to beat on their travels.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record is entirely in Alvechurch’s favour. In two previous meetings, both hosted by Alvechurch, Leamington have lost 3-0 (FA Cup, 2025) and 1-0 (Southern League Premier Division, 2023). Leamington have yet to score against Alvechurch and will need to break that duck in this home fixture.

League Table Positions

Exact league positions are not included in the data, but Leamington compete in the National League North (English sixth tier), while Alvechurch play one level lower in the Southern League Premier Division. The home advantage and higher league status give Leamington a theoretical edge, though the H2H history tempers that expectation.

Win Probability: Leamington or Alvechurch?

Our analysis gives Leamington a 42% chance of winning, the draw a 28% probability, and Alvechurch a 30% win probability. The calculation is based solely on the supplied form, head-to-head record, league tier difference and home factor. With no bookmaker odds available, these percentages are estimated from the on-paper advantages: Leamington’s higher division status and home pitch are balanced against Alvechurch’s perfect H2H record and steadier recent form. The match is finely poised and could easily go all three ways, but Leamington remain the marginal favourite.

Odds & Match Prediction

No pre-match odds were provided in the source data, so a direct odds-based forecast isn’t possible. However, bookmakers would likely price Leamington as slight favourites given the home tie and higher league standing. Our Leamington vs Alvechurch prediction leans towards a home win, but with low confidence — a draw or an Alvechurch steal is a very real possibility. Betting tips should consider the under 2.5 goals market, as both sides have been involved in low-scoring affairs recently.