Kuressaare - JK Narva Trans prediction 16 June 2026

The Kuressaare vs JK Narva Trans prediction looks at the Meistriliiga match on June 16, 2026, kicking off at 16:00. According to our analysis, Kuressaare holds a 45% win probability, a draw is at 30%, and JK Narva Trans has a 25% chance. Keep reading for detailed betting tips, head-to-head records, and a full probability breakdown.

Team Form

Kuressaare enter this match after a morale-boosting 3-2 away victory against Harju JK Laagri on June 13. That result gave them their first win in five attempts and showed they can compete on the road. Overall this season, Kuressaare have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses, highlighting their inconsistency but occasional threat going forward.

JK Narva Trans are struggling badly. Their most recent fixture before this game was a 1-2 home defeat to Nomme United on June 13. Over the season, they have just 3 wins, 1 draw, and 15 losses, leaving them rooted to the bottom of the table. Traveling to face a Kuressaare side with home advantage looks a tough task given their away form has been particularly poor.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record across all meetings shows 11 wins for Kuressaare at home, 10 draws, and 21 wins for JK Narva Trans. In the last five encounters (excluding this fixture), Kuressaare won once, drew two, and lost one. The most recent league meeting was a 2-1 away win for Kuressaare in April 2026. Before that, a friendly in February 2026 ended 2-2 and a September 2025 league match finished 0-0. These numbers suggest a closely matched affair, despite Narva's longer-term historical edge.

League Table Positions

In the Meistriliiga standings, Kuressaare sit 9th with 17 points from 18 matches (5W, 2D, 11L). Their home record places them 8th with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, netting 10 points. JK Narva Trans are 10th with just 10 points from 19 games. The gap of 7 points and the fact that Narva have conceded 46 goals while Kuressaare have conceded 30 underlines the hosts' slight superiority, especially on their own pitch.

Win Probability: Kuressaare or JK Narva Trans?

We assign the following outcome probabilities for this match: a Kuressaare win at 45%, a draw at 30%, and a JK Narva Trans win at 25%. These figures are based on Kuressaare's superior league position, the home advantage, and slightly better overall form. While Narva have a stronger historical H2H, their current campaign is extremely weak, and Kuressaare's ability to score at home gives them the edge. The high probability of a draw reflects the many stalemates these two sides have produced in recent meetings.

Odds & Match Prediction

No specific bookmaker odds are available in the data, but given the statistics, bookmakers would likely install Kuressaare as the home favorite. Our prediction aligns with that view: a home win is the most probable outcome. However, the draw cannot be dismissed—three of the last five H2H clashes have ended level. Based on all available stats and the calculated win probabilities, Kuressaare to win is the recommended betting angle, but cautious punters might consider the draw no bet market.