Mariehamn - KuPS prediction 16 May 2026
Mariehamn
KuPS
GnistanMariehamnVPS VaasaMariehamnMariehamnInter TurkuMariehamnHJK HelsinkiAC OuluMariehamnMariehamnGnistanHJK HelsinkiMariehamnMariehamnLahtiJaroMariehamnMariehamnKuPSMariehamnPuiULahtiMariehamnMariehamnVPS VaasaHPS HelsinkiMariehamnInter TurkuMariehamnSeinajoen JKKuPSKuPSVardar SkopjeVardar SkopjeKuPSHJK HelsinkiKuPSKuPSIlvesTPS TurkuKuPSVPS VaasaKuPSKuPSVPS VaasaKuPSInter TurkuJaPSKuPSKuPSLahtiKuPSJaroMariehamnKuPSPK-35 VantaaKuPSKuPSSeinajoen JKMariehamnKuPSMariehamnKuPSKuPSMariehamnMariehamnKuPSKuPSMariehamnMariehamnKuPSKuPSMariehamnMariehamnKuPSMariehamnKuPSMariehamnKuPSKuPSMariehamnMariehamnKuPSKuPSMariehamnKuPSMariehamnMariehamnKuPSMariehamnKuPSKuPSMariehamnMariehamnKuPSMariehamnKuPSKuPSMariehamnKuPSMariehamnKuPSMariehamnMariehamnKuPSMariehamnKuPSMariehamnKuPSMariehamnKuPSKuPSMariehamnMariehamnKuPSKuPSMariehamn| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 27:15 | +12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 23:12 | +11 | 30 |
| 3 |  VPS Vaasa | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 22:11 | +11 | 27 |
| 4 |  AC Oulu | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 20:18 | +2 | 26 |
| 5 |  HJK Helsinki | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 25:19 | +6 | 22 |
| 6 |  Gnistan | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 23:20 | +3 | 22 |
| 7 |  TPS Turku | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 19:16 | +3 | 22 |
| 8 |  Lahti | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 18:15 | +3 | 19 |
| 9 |  Ilves | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 25:29 | -4 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seinajoen JK | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 18:23 | -5 | 14 |
| 11 |  Jaro | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15:32 | -17 | 11 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 8:33 | -25 | 4 |
KuPS vs Mariehamn Prediction (May 16)
The KuPS vs Mariehamn prediction for May 16, 2026, in the Finland Veikkausliiga points strongly towards a home win, with KuPS holding a 70% win probability. The match kicks off at 14:00 UTC and sees the league leaders take on bottom-placed Mariehamn. Everything from current form to the head-to-head record suggests KuPS should secure all three points.
Team Form
KuPS come into this fixture in formidable shape. Their last five matches across all competitions have yielded four wins and one draw. Highlights include a 4–0 away victory against HJK Helsinki and a 2–0 win at Vardar Skopje in the UEFA Champions League Qualification. The only slight blemish was a 1–1 draw at VPS Vaasa, yet their momentum is undeniable.
Mariehamn, conversely, are in a deep crisis. They have lost all of their last five matches, conceding at least two goals in each. A 4–2 defeat at Gnistan and a 4–0 thrashing at VPS Vaasa encapsulate their struggles. The team has failed to keep a clean sheet in this run, raising serious questions about their defensive organization.
Head-to-Head Record
The historical record heavily favors the home side. Over all meetings, KuPS have won 21 encounters compared to Mariehamn’s 4, with 4 draws. In their most recent clash on May 16, 2026, the fixture ended 1–1 at Mariehamn’s ground, but earlier that season KuPS recorded a dominant 4–1 home win. Across the last five H2H meetings, KuPS have emerged victorious twice, with two draws and one Mariehamn win.
League Table Positions
The standings illustrate the gulf between these sides. KuPS sit 1st in the Veikkausliiga with 30 points from 15 games (8 wins, 6 draws, 1 loss), boasting the best home record (5 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses). Mariehamn are rooted to the foot of the table in 12th place, with only 4 points from 14 matches, 0 wins, and a goal difference of –23. KuPS have scored 27 goals while Mariehamn have mustered just 6 league goals all season.
Win Probability: KuPS or Mariehamn?
After analyzing all available data—team form, head-to-head statistics, league positions, and home advantage—the win probabilities for this match are:
- KuPS win: 70%
- Draw: 20%
- Mariehamn win: 10%
KuPS are clear favorites: they are top of the league, undefeated at home, and facing a Mariehamn side that has lost every recent match and is yet to win a league game this season. The 21–4 head-to-head advantage in wins for the home side reinforces this outlook. While a draw is possible—especially given KuPS’s six league draws—Mariehamn’s chances of an upset are minimal.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers’ odds for the KuPS vs Mariehamn match are not provided in the available data. However, based purely on the stats, the match outcome is overwhelmingly likely to be a home win for KuPS. The form differential, league positions, and historical dominance all point in one direction. A scoreline with KuPS winning by a two-goal margin would not be a surprise.
KuPS vs Mariehamn — FAQ
- Who will win KuPS vs Mariehamn?
- KuPS are strong favorites with a 70% win probability. The draw is given a 20% chance, while Mariehamn have just a 10% chance of an upset. These percentages are based on KuPS’s top-of-the-table form, an unbeaten home record, and Mariehamn’s last-place standing with no wins all season.
- What is the win probability for KuPS?
- KuPS have a 70% chance to win the match. This is derived from their excellent recent form (4 wins, 1 draw in the last five games), a dominant head-to-head record with 21 home wins over Mariehamn, and a perfect home record in the league this term.
- When is the KuPS vs Mariehamn match?
- The match takes place on May 16, 2026, at 14:00 UTC. It is a Veikkausliiga fixture, the top division of football in Finland.
- What are the odds for the match?
- No specific odds are available in the provided data for the KuPS vs Mariehamn match. However, given KuPS’s heavy favoritism in the stats, any bookmaker would likely price a KuPS win at very short odds.
- What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Mariehamn?
- In the overall head-to-head, KuPS have 21 wins, Mariehamn have 4 wins, and there have been 4 draws. KuPS have been especially dominant at home, and they won the last home meeting 4–1 in April 2025.