KTP - PK-35 Vantaa prediction 18 July 2026

KTP vs PK-35 Vantaa prediction: this Ykkosliiga clash on Jul 18, 2026, at 14:00 sees league leaders KTP host second-placed PK-35 Vantaa. Based on our in-depth analysis, KTP has a 40% win probability, a draw stands at 35%, and PK-35 Vantaa has a 25% chance of taking all three points.

Team Form

KTP come into this match with a solid recent record. Their last five results show three wins, one draw, and one defeat:

• Jul 10: KTP 4-1 JaPS (W)
• Jul 03: KTP 3-3 JIPPO (D)
• Jun 27: Haka 0-2 KTP (W)
• Jun 12: KTP 5-1 EIF (W)
• Jun 08: KTP 0-2 Haka (L)

PK-35 Vantaa, on the other hand, are in even better shape. They are unbeaten in five matches, with four wins and a draw:

• Jul 10: PK-35 Vantaa 3-1 KäPa (W)
• Jul 04: EIF 0-3 PK-35 Vantaa (W)
• Jun 26: PK-35 Vantaa 2-1 Mikkelin Palloilijat (W)
• Jun 12: JaPS 0-5 PK-35 Vantaa (W)
• May 31: PK-35 Vantaa 1-1 Klubi 04 (D)

Head-to-Head Record

In the last five meetings between these sides, KTP have won three, PK-35 Vantaa two, and there have been no draws. The most recent encounter was on Apr 24, 2026, in the Ykkosliiga, where KTP won 1-0 away. Here is the full head-to-head history:

• Apr 24, 2026: PK-35 Vantaa 0-1 KTP (Ykkosliiga)
• Mar 02, 2024: KTP 2-4 PK-35 Vantaa (Ykkoscup)
• Sep 03, 2022: PK-35 Vantaa 0-1 KTP (Ykkonen)
• Jun 22, 2022: KTP 4-0 PK-35 Vantaa (Ykkonen)
• Mar 05, 2022: KTP 0-1 PK-35 Vantaa (Kolmonen)

League Table Positions

KTP sit top of the Ykkosliiga with 32 points from 14 matches (10 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). They have scored 25 goals and conceded 14. PK-35 Vantaa are just behind in second place with 30 points (9 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), boasting a better defensive record with only 8 goals conceded.

At home, KTP are also first: 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from 7 games, scoring 16 and conceding 8. PK-35 Vantaa's away form is equally impressive: 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, with 11 goals scored and only 1 conceded in 7 away matches. This sets up a tight contest between the league's two strongest sides.

Win Probability: KTP or PK-35 Vantaa?

After evaluating all available data, we calculate the match outcome probabilities as follows: KTP win 40%, draw 35%, PK-35 Vantaa win 25%. These percentages are derived from the bookmaker odds (which heavily favor a draw), adjusted for recent form, head-to-head record, and home advantage.

KTP's home strength and superior H2H record (3 wins in 5) give them a slight edge, but PK-35 Vantaa's outstanding away defensive record (only 1 goal conceded in 7 away games) and unbeaten run of five matches make a draw a very realistic outcome. The probability model reflects that KTP is the more likely winner, but the match is far from a foregone conclusion.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers have priced this match tightly. One bookmaker offers odds of 2.45 for a KTP home win, 2.12 for the draw, and 3.75 for a PK-35 Vantaa away victory. These odds imply the draw is the most probable result in the market's view.

Our prediction, however, leans slightly towards KTP. Based on the stats, KTP's home form and head-to-head advantage tip the balance, but PK-35 Vantaa's resilience means a draw cannot be ruled out. A low-scoring affair is likely, with both teams capable of finding the net. The safest betting tip might be the draw, but for the match outcome, KTP has the higher win probability according to our model.