Juventude RS - Cuiaba MT prediction 17 July 2026

Juventude RS vs Cuiaba MT prediction for the Serie B match on Jul 17, 2026, at 22:00. Based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, a draw is the most likely outcome with a 45% probability, while Juventude RS has a 35% chance of winning and Cuiaba MT a 20% chance.

Team Form

Juventude RS comes into this match in excellent form, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches:

• Jul 10: Juventude RS 1-0 Vila Nova GO (W)
• Jul 05: Nautico PE 0-0 Juventude RS (D)
• Jun 28: Juventude RS 2-0 Ceara CE (W)
• Jun 21: Sao Bernardo SP 0-1 Juventude RS (W)
• Jun 14: Juventude RS 3-0 Ponte Preta SP (W)

Their home performances have been particularly impressive: they have won their last three home games without conceding a single goal. Overall, Juventude RS has scored 17 goals and conceded only 8 in 17 league matches, highlighting their defensive solidity.

Cuiaba MT's recent form is more mixed (D-W-D-L-W):

• Jul 12: Sao Bernardo SP 2-2 Cuiaba MT (D)
• Jul 02: Cuiaba MT 1-0 America Mineiro MG (W)
• Jun 25: Cuiaba MT 2-2 Londrina PR (D)
• Jun 21: Avai SC 1-0 Cuiaba MT (L)
• Jun 14: Cuiaba MT 1-0 Vila Nova GO (W)

They have struggled on the road, managing only a draw and a loss in their last two away fixtures. With 9 draws in 17 games, Cuiaba MT is the draw specialist of Serie B, but they have only 5 wins so far this season.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record heavily favors Cuiaba MT. In their last 10 meetings, Juventude RS has never won, with Cuiaba MT claiming 7 victories and 3 matches ending in draws. The most recent encounter, on Nov 23, 2024, finished 1-1. Historically, Cuiaba MT has dominated this fixture, but Juventude RS will hope to turn the tide with their current strong home form.

League Table Positions

Juventude RS sits 5th in the Serie B table with 29 points from 17 matches (8 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses). Their home record is outstanding: 2nd best in the league with 20 points from 9 home games (6 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) and a remarkable defensive record of just 1 goal conceded at home. Cuiaba MT is 11th with 24 points (5 wins, 9 draws, 3 losses). Their away form is not among the top 8 in the league, indicating vulnerability on the road.

Win Probability: Juventude RS or Cuiaba MT?

After analyzing the odds, form, and statistics, we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Juventude RS win: 35%
• Draw: 45%
• Cuiaba MT win: 20%

The draw is the most probable outcome, reflecting both teams' tendencies—Juventude's defensive strength at home and Cuiaba's high number of draws. Juventude RS's 35% chance is boosted by their near-perfect home record, while Cuiaba MT's low away win probability is due to their poor road performances and historical dominance not fully translating to current form.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for the 1X2 market show the draw as the clear favorite, with average odds around 1.85. Juventude RS is priced between 2.62 and 2.88, and Cuiaba MT between 4.33 and 5.25. These odds imply a high likelihood of a stalemate.

Our Juventude RS vs Cuiaba MT prediction: based on the stats, the most likely result is a low-scoring draw. However, Juventude RS's home fortress could see them edge a narrow 1-0 win. For betting tips, the under 2.5 goals market looks attractive given both teams' defensive records.

Pre-Match Update: Three Days to Kick-Off

Bookmakers currently price a draw as the most probable outcome, with average odds around 1.85. Based on the current odds, the implied win probabilities are approximately 33% for a Juventude RS victory, 52% for a draw, and 22% for a Cuiaba MT win. Juventude RS remain unbeaten in their last five (W4 D1) and have kept three consecutive home clean sheets, while Cuiaba MT have drawn two of their last three away matches and have lost only three times all season.