Jelgava - Grobinas SC prediction 29 June 2026

The Virsliga match between Jelgava and Grobinas SC kicks off on June 29, 2026 at 15:00. Our Jelgava vs Grobinas SC prediction gives the home side a 45% win probability, with a draw at 25% and Grobinas SC at 30%. Based on current form, head-to-head record, and league table positions, Jelgava enters as the slight favorite, but the visitors have a strong recent record in this fixture.

Team Form

Jelgava's recent form shows two wins and one loss in their last three matches before this encounter. They beat FK Progress Super Nova 5-1 away on June 25 and Tukums 2000 4-1 at home on June 21, but lost 0-2 at home to Ogre United on June 17. In those three games, they scored nine goals and conceded four, showing attacking strength but occasional defensive lapses.

Grobinas SC collected one win, one draw, and one loss in their last three outings. They drew 0-0 at home with Auda on June 25, lost 0-1 away to BFC Daugavpils on June 20, and beat Liepajas Metalurgs 1-0 at home on June 16. Their attack has been quiet, with just one goal in those three matches, though they kept two clean sheets.

Head-to-Head Record

The recent head-to-head record strongly favors Grobinas SC. In the last four meetings (since June 2025), Grobinas SC won three times and drew once. The scores were 0-1 (Mar 21, 2026), 2-3 (Aug 29, 2025), 0-1 (Jun 22, 2025), and 0-0 (May 11, 2026). Jelgava has failed to win any of those matches, which adds a layer of risk for the hosts despite their home advantage.

League Table Positions

Jelgava sits 6th in the Virsliga overall standings with 25 points from 22 matches (6 wins, 7 draws, 9 losses, goals 24:38). Grobinas SC is 8th with 20 points from 22 matches (4 wins, 8 draws, 10 losses, goals 15:33). At home, Jelgava has a 4-2-5 record (13:19 goals), ranking 6th in the home table. Grobinas SC's away form shows 2-4-4 (6:16 goals), also 6th in the away table. The gap between the two teams is five points, but both have conceded more than they have scored.

Win Probability: Jelgava or Grobinas SC?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Jelgava 45%, Draw 25%, Grobinas SC 30%. This estimate is based on Jelgava's slightly superior league position and home advantage, balanced by Grobinas SC's dominant recent head-to-head record. Jelgava's home form is inconsistent, while Grobinas SC has struggled to score away from home. The most likely outcome is a narrow home win, but a draw or away upset cannot be ruled out.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers' odds for this match are not available in our data. Based purely on the stats, Jelgava is the marginal favorite due to home field and a higher points total. However, Grobinas SC's unbeaten run of four games against Jelgava suggests the visitors have the tactical edge. Our match prediction is a cautious Jelgava win, but the high probability of a draw (25%) or away win (30%) means this fixture carries considerable uncertainty for betting tips.