Gwangju FC - Jeju United prediction 26 July 2026
Gwangju FC
Jeju UnitedGwangju FC
Gimcheon Sangmu SangjuAnyangGwangju FCGwangju FCPohang SteelersGwangju FCUlsan Hyundai Horang-iIncheon UnitedGwangju FCGwangju FCSeoulGwangju FCGangwon FCJeonbuk Hyundai MotorsGwangju FCGwangju FCDaejeon CitizenGwangju FCAnyangPohang SteelersGwangju FCUlsan Hyundai Horang-iGwangju FCGwangju FCBucheon FC 1995Gangwon FCGwangju FCSeoulGwangju FCJeju UnitedGangwon FCJeju UnitedPohang SteelersJeju UnitedDaejeon CitizenGimcheon Sangmu SangjuJeju UnitedJeju UnitedAnyangUlsan Hyundai Horang-iJeju UnitedJeju UnitedSeoulBucheon FC 1995Jeju UnitedJeju UnitedJeonbuk Hyundai MotorsIncheon UnitedJeju UnitedDaejeon CitizenJeju UnitedJeju UnitedGimcheon Sangmu SangjuPohang SteelersJeju UnitedJeju UnitedBucheon FC 1995Gangwon FCJeju United| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.33 | 2.05 | 2.50 | |
| 4.50 | 2.00 | 2.45 | |
| 4.75 | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| 4.20 | 2.00 | 2.37 | |
| 4.45 | 1.98 | 2.35 |
Jeju UnitedGwangju FCGwangju FCJeju UnitedJeju UnitedGwangju FCJeju UnitedGwangju FCGwangju FCJeju UnitedJeju UnitedGwangju FCJeju UnitedGwangju FCJeju UnitedGwangju FCGwangju FCJeju UnitedGwangju FCJeju UnitedGwangju FCJeju UnitedJeju UnitedGwangju FCGwangju FCJeju UnitedGwangju FCJeju UnitedJeju UnitedGwangju FCJeju UnitedGwangju FCGwangju FCJeju UnitedJeju UnitedGwangju FC| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Seoul | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 31:13 | +18 | 39 |
| 2 |  Gangwon FC | 19 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 24:12 | +12 | 32 |
| 3 |  Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 25:16 | +9 | 30 |
| 4 |  Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 27:28 | -1 | 28 |
| 5 |  Pohang Steelers | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 19:16 | +3 | 28 |
| 6 |  Incheon United | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 24:20 | +4 | 27 |
| 7 |  Anyang | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 23:20 | +3 | 24 |
| 8 | Jeju United | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 17:19 | -2 | 24 |
| 9 |  Daejeon Citizen | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 21:20 | +1 | 20 |
| 10 |  Bucheon FC 1995 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 15:21 | -6 | 19 |
| 11 |  Gimcheon Sangmu Sangju | 18 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 17:25 | -8 | 16 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 9:42 | -33 | 9 |
Jeju United vs Gwangju FC Prediction (Mar 01)
The K-League 1 match between Jeju United and Gwangju FC on Mar 01, 2026, at 07:30 UTC sees Jeju United as the favorite with a 40% win probability. Based on league standings, recent form, and head-to-head record, the hosts have a slight edge, but a draw is also a strong possibility.
Team Form
Jeju United's last five results: Draw vs Daejeon Citizen (0-0), Draw vs Gimcheon Sangmu Sangju (1-1), Loss vs Anyang (1-2), Loss vs Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i (1-2), Win vs Seoul (2-1). They have managed only one win in that run, scoring 5 goals and conceding 6.
Gwangju FC's last five results: Loss vs Pohang Steelers (0-3), Draw vs Ulsan Hyundai Horang-i (1-1), Loss vs Incheon United (0-4), Loss vs Seoul (0-1), Draw vs Gangwon FC (0-0). The visitors are winless in five, with just 1 goal scored and 9 conceded, highlighting their struggles at both ends.
Head-to-Head Record
In the last five meetings, Gwangju FC has dominated with 4 wins and 1 draw. The most recent encounter on Mar 01, 2026 ended 0-0. Overall, the head-to-head record across all competitions stands at Jeju United 2 wins, 9 draws, and Gwangju FC 7 wins. Draws are a recurring theme in this fixture, occurring in 50% of all matches.
League Table Positions
Jeju United sits 8th in the K-League 1 with 19 points from 16 games (5 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses). Gwangju FC is bottom of the table in 12th place with just 8 points from 17 matches (1 win, 5 draws, 11 losses). Jeju's goal difference is -3, while Gwangju's is -33, underlining the gulf in performance this season.
Win Probability: Jeju United or Gwangju FC?
We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Jeju United 40%, Draw 35%, Gwangju FC 25%. This assessment is based on Jeju's home advantage, their superior league position, and slightly better recent form, balanced against Gwangju's strong recent head-to-head record (4 wins in the last 5) and the historically high draw rate in this matchup. Jeju United is the more likely winner, but a stalemate carries almost equal weight.
Jeju United vs Gwangju FC Prediction
Bookmakers' odds are not available for this fixture. Our match prediction leans towards a low-scoring draw, with Jeju United having a marginal edge if a winner emerges. Betting tip: under 2.5 goals looks attractive given both teams' attacking struggles—Jeju averages 0.88 goals per game, Gwangju just 0.47. Based on the stats, Jeju United is the favorite, but the value may lie in the draw market.
Jeju United vs Gwangju FC — FAQ
- Who will win Jeju United vs Gwangju FC?
- Jeju United has a 40% chance of winning, the draw is at 35%, and Gwangju FC has a 25% chance. Jeju is the favorite based on league position and home advantage, but the head-to-head record and both teams' poor form make a draw a very realistic outcome.
- What is the win probability for Jeju United?
- Jeju United's win probability is 40%. This is derived from their 8th-place standing, home advantage, and slightly better recent results compared to bottom-placed Gwangju FC, though Gwangju's recent dominance in head-to-head meetings (4 wins in the last 5) keeps the probability moderate.
- When is the Jeju United vs Gwangju FC match?
- The match takes place on Mar 01, 2026, at 07:30 UTC. It is a K-League 1 fixture between Jeju United and Gwangju FC.
- What are the odds for the match?
- No bookmaker odds are available in the provided data. Typically, Jeju United would be priced as the favorite, with a draw and Gwangju FC win at higher odds, reflecting the probabilities outlined above.
- What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United and Gwangju FC?
- Overall, Jeju United has 2 wins, Gwangju FC has 7 wins, and there have been 9 draws. In the last five meetings, Gwangju won 4 and 1 ended in a draw, including the most recent 0-0 on Mar 01, 2026.