Jaragua SC - Nacao SC prediction 15 July 2026

The Jaragua SC vs Nacao SC prediction for July 15, 2026, points to an away win in the Campeonato Catarinense. Serie B. Based on recent form and league standings, Nacao SC enters this match as the clear favorite with a 65% win probability, while bottom-placed Jaragua SC has just a 10% chance of victory and the draw sits at 25%.

Team Form

Jaragua SC is in terrible shape, losing all of their last five matches. The defeats include an 8-1 thrashing by Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC, a 3-0 home loss to Atletico Tubarao SC, a 2-0 home reverse against Hercilio Luz SC, a 6-0 away drubbing at Blumenau SC, and a 3-1 home loss to Guarani de Palhoca SC. Across these five games, they conceded 22 goals and scored just twice.

Nacao SC’s form is mixed but far more respectable. Their last five results read L, L, D, D, W. The most recent was a 2-1 home loss to Fluminense SC, preceded by a 1-0 away defeat at Atletico Tubarao SC. Before that, they drew 0-0 with Metropolitano SC and 0-0 with Guarani de Palhoca SC, and beat Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC 1-0 at home. While not spectacular, they have kept three clean sheets in that run.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before, back on December 13, 2020, in the Campeonato Paranaense. Nacao SC won that encounter 3-0 at home. That single head-to-head match gives Nacao SC a psychological edge, even though it was a different competition.

League Table Positions

Jaragua SC sit rock bottom of the Campeonato Catarinense. Serie B with just 1 point from 9 matches (0 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses). They have scored only 3 goals and conceded a staggering 32. Nacao SC are 8th with 9 points (2 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses), having scored 10 and conceded 19. The gap in quality is stark, and Jaragua SC’s home record is among the worst in the division — they are not even listed in the top eight home performers, while Nacao SC’s away form is unremarkable but still far superior to the hosts’ overall displays.

Win Probability: Jaragua SC or Nacao SC?

Jaragua SC has a 10% chance of winning, the draw is at 25%, and Nacao SC has a 65% chance. This calculation is based on the teams’ form, league positions, and the head-to-head result. Jaragua SC have not won a single league game all season and have lost eight of nine, making a home victory highly unlikely. Nacao SC, while inconsistent, have shown they can grind out results and face the leakiest defence in the division. The 25% draw probability reflects Nacao SC’s own tendency to share the points (three draws in nine games) and the possibility that Jaragua SC might scrape a rare stalemate.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ odds are not available in the provided data, but based on the stats, Nacao SC are the justified favorites. The most likely outcome is an away win, probably with a clean sheet given Jaragua SC’s scoring woes. A low-scoring game is expected, with Nacao SC likely to edge it by a one or two-goal margin. Our Jaragua SC vs Nacao SC prediction is a 2-0 away victory.