Ivinhema MS - Independente AP prediction 18 February 2026

The Ivinhema MS vs Independente AP prediction for the Cup match on February 18, 2026, at 23:30. Based on recent form and home advantage, Ivinhema MS are the favorites with a 40% win probability. The draw stands at 35%, while Independente AP have a 25% chance to win.

Team Form

Ivinhema MS come into this match with a mixed run of results: L, D, W, D, D in their last five outings. Their most recent match was a 1-2 home loss to AS Arapiraquense AL in Serie D on July 6. Before that, they drew 1-1 away at Democrata MG, beat Democrata MG 3-1 at home, and collected draws against CRAC GO (1-1 away) and Uberlandia MG (1-1 home). The team has struggled to convert draws into wins, managing only one victory in this period.

Independente AP have been even more draw-heavy: D, D, D, W, D in their last five. They played three consecutive draws with Sao Jose AP (2-2, 2-2, 0-0) in the Campeonato Amapaense, then won 3-1 away at Macapa AP, and drew 2-2 at home against Santos AP. The away side has shown resilience but lacks a consistent winning edge.

Head-to-Head Record

There are no previous meetings between Ivinhema MS and Independente AP. This Cup match will be the first-ever clash between the two sides, making historical head-to-head data unavailable for this prediction.

Win Probability: Ivinhema MS or Independente AP?

We calculate the win probabilities based on the teams' last five results and the home advantage factor. Ivinhema MS, playing at home, have a slight edge despite their draw-heavy form. The numbers break down as follows:

• Ivinhema MS win: 40%
• Draw: 35%
• Independente AP win: 25%

The home side’s 40% chance reflects their ability to get results on their own turf (one win and two draws in the last three home games). Independente AP’s away win at Macapa AP shows they can travel, but the high number of draws in their recent form drags their win probability down. The 35% draw probability is high because both teams have been involved in many stalemates lately.

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds were available for this match at the time of analysis. Based purely on the available stats, Ivinhema MS emerge as the more likely winners. The combination of home advantage and a slightly better recent record (one win versus one win for the away side, but with more home draws) points toward a narrow home victory. Our prediction: Ivinhema MS to win, but the draw is a very real possibility given the form pattern of both teams.