Hercilio Luz SC - Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC prediction 15 July 2026

The Hercilio Luz SC vs Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC prediction for this Campeonato Catarinense. Serie B fixture on Jul 15 is heavily in favor of the home side. Hercilio Luz SC enters the match with a 65% win probability, while the draw stands at 27% and an away win for Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC is just 8%.

Team Form

Hercilio Luz SC are in outstanding form, winning their last five matches in a row. They secured a 2-0 away victory at Blumenau SC, a 2-1 win at Guarani de Palhoca SC, a 4-2 home success against Fluminense SC, a 3-0 home thrashing of Metropolitano SC, and a 2-0 away win at Jaragua SC. During this streak, they scored 13 goals and conceded only 3, showing both attacking firepower and defensive solidity.

Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC have been inconsistent. Their last five results: a 1-0 home win over Guarani de Palhoca SC, a 1-1 draw at Blumenau SC, an 8-1 home demolition of Jaragua SC, a 0-2 home loss to Atletico Tubarao SC, and a 0-1 away defeat at Nacao SC. The team has struggled on the road, losing three of their last five away matches and scoring just 2 goals in those games.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Hercilio Luz SC and Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC is evenly split with 3 wins each and 1 draw from their last 7 encounters. The most recent meeting on May 24, 2026, saw Hercilio Luz SC claim a 1-0 away win. In 2022, Hercilio won 1-0 at home. Earlier, in November 2021, Juventus won 2-1 away and the teams drew 1-1. The recent trend slightly favors Hercilio, who have won the last two clashes.

League Table Positions

In the Campeonato Catarinense. Serie B standings, Hercilio Luz SC sits 4th with 17 points from 9 matches (5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). They have scored 17 goals and conceded only 6. Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC is 9th with just 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses), having scored a mere 3 goals and conceded 15. The home table reveals Hercilio as the best home side with 12 points from 5 games (4 wins, 1 loss). Juventus's away form ranks 6th, with 2 wins and 3 losses in 5 away trips, netting only 2 goals. The gap in quality and consistency is significant.

Win Probability: Hercilio Luz SC or Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC?

Based on the odds, team form, and league positions, the calculated win probabilities are: Hercilio Luz SC 65%, draw 27%, Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC 8%. The bookmakers’ odds of 1.22 for a home win imply a high likelihood, and Hercilio’s perfect recent run and dominant home record support this. Juventus’s poor away performances and lack of goals make an upset highly improbable. The draw remains a possible outcome given the historical head-to-head balance, but Hercilio’s momentum tips the scale firmly in their favor.

Odds & Match Prediction

The pre-match odds for this fixture are: Hercilio Luz SC win at 1.22, draw at 2.50, and Juventus Jaragua do Sul SC win at 10.00. These odds clearly identify the home team as the favorite. Our match prediction: Hercilio Luz SC to win. With Juventus scoring only 3 goals in 9 league games, a low-scoring affair is likely, and the under 2.5 goals market could be worth considering. However, the safest betting tip is a home victory.