Guingamp - Concarneau prediction 23 July 2025

Guingamp vs Concarneau prediction looks at the Friendly Clubs clash on July 23, 2025 at 16:00 UTC. Guingamp enter as the narrow favorites with a 35% probability to win, a draw sits at 35%, while Concarneau have a 30% chance based on recent form and head‑to‑head data.

Team Form

Guingamp come into this friendly on a terrible run in Ligue 2. Their last five matches show four defeats and a single draw – a 1‑1 home draw with Grenoble. The other four outings all ended in losses: 1‑0 at Clermont, 0‑1 at home to SC Bastia, 3‑2 at Red Star FC 93, and 2‑1 at Pau. Across those five games they failed to keep a clean sheet and struggled to score more than once.

Concarneau’s recent form in the National division paints a picture of solidity rather than firepower. Their last five results include four draws and one win. They shared the points 0‑0 away at Caen, 0‑0 home to Paris 13 Atletico, 0‑0 home to Rouen, and 2‑2 home to Villefranche. The single victory was a 2‑1 away success at Stade Briochin. The visitors have been hard to beat but lack the cutting edge to turn draws into wins.

Head‑to‑Head Record

The two sides have faced each other twice before in competitive football, both in Ligue 2 fixtures. Guingamp won one and Concarneau won one. The most recent meeting (March 9, 2024) saw Guingamp claim a 3‑2 away win at Concarneau. Earlier, on December 16, 2023, Concarneau triumphed 1‑0 away at Guingamp. The head‑to‑head is perfectly balanced with a win apiece.

Win Probability: Guingamp or Concarneau?

We have calculated the match outcome probabilities using the available data (form, head‑to‑head, home advantage, and league tier). The probabilities are:

• Guingamp win: 35%
• Draw: 35%
• Concarneau win: 30%

Guingamp’s edge comes from playing at home and their higher division status (Ligue 2 vs National), but their wretched recent form – one point from the last 15 in competitive action – drastically lowers confidence. Concarneau are unbeaten in five but have drawn four of them, showing resilience without a killer instinct. The friendly nature of the match adds further uncertainty, making a draw the single most likely specific outcome.

Guingamp vs Concarneau Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are currently available for this match. Based on the statistics, we lean towards a stalemate. Guingamp’s poor form offsets home advantage, while Concarneau’s toughness away from home suggests they can hold out. Our Guingamp vs Concarneau prediction is a tight, low‑scoring draw, with a narrow possibility that Guingamp’s higher quality eventually tells.