Grotta - Aegir prediction 18 July 2026
Grotta
AegirGrotta
UMF GrindavikLeiknir ReykjavikGrottaGrottaHK KopavogurVolsungurGrottaGrottaFylkirIR ReykjavikGrottaFylkirGrottaGrottaUMF GrindavikNjardvikGrottaThrottur ReykjavikGrottaGrottaIF VestriGrottaAftureldingIF VestriGrottaAegirGrottaGrottaLeiknir ReykjavikAegirHK KopavogurAegirFylkirAftureldingAegirUMF GrindavikAegirAegirThrottur ReykjavikIF VestriAegirAegirLeiknir ReykjavikVolsungurAegirAegirIR ReykjavikNjardvikAegirAegirIF VestriKA AkureyriAegirAegirGrottaHK KopavogurAegirFylkirAegir| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.52 | 2.88 | 4.20 | |
| 1.51 | 2.90 | 4.10 | |
| 1.50 | 2.78 | 4.15 | |
| 1.48 | 2.90 | 4.20 | |
| 1.45 | 2.88 | 4.33 |
AegirGrottaAegirGrottaGrottaAegirAegirGrottaGrottaAegir| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Afturelding | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 40:19 | +21 | 28 |
| 2 |  Fylkir | 13 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 28:19 | +9 | 27 |
| 3 |  HK Kopavogur | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 30:24 | +6 | 25 |
| 4 |  Throttur Reykjavik | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26:14 | +12 | 24 |
| 5 |  IF Vestri | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 24:25 | -1 | 21 |
| 6 |  Njardvik | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19:15 | +4 | 20 |
| 7 |  Leiknir Reykjavik | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17:16 | +1 | 19 |
| 8 | Grotta | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 23:27 | -4 | 19 |
| 9 |  UMF Grindavik | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 15:18 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 |  IR Reykjavik | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 25:36 | -11 | 12 |
| 11 |  Volsungur | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 17:33 | -16 | 8 |
| 12 | Aegir | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 18:36 | -18 | 8 |
Grotta vs Aegir Prediction (Jul 18, 2026)
Team Form
Grotta's last five matches show two wins, one draw, and two losses. They beat Leiknir Reykjavik 1-0 away and HK Kopavogur 2-1 at home, drew 2-2 with Volsungur, then lost 2-5 to Fylkir and 1-2 to IR Reykjavik. That mixed run has them sitting mid-table with 19 points from 12 games.
Aegir, meanwhile, are in poor shape. They have lost four of their last five, conceding 20 goals in that spell. A 1-8 thrashing at Afturelding and back-to-back 2-4 home defeats to HK Kopavogur and Fylkir highlight defensive issues. The only point came from a goalless draw at UMF Grindavik. With just 8 points from 14 matches, Aegir are bottom of the 1st Division.
Head-to-Head Record
Grotta have never lost to Aegir in five meetings (3 wins, 2 draws). The most recent clash on May 9, 2026 ended in a 1-0 away win for Grotta. In 2025, Grotta won 3-1 away and drew 3-3 at home. Earlier meetings include a 2-2 draw in 2023 and a 2-1 home win. This head-to-head dominance gives Grotta a clear psychological edge heading into the fixture.
League Table Positions
Grotta occupy 8th place with 19 points and a goal difference of -3. Aegir are 12th (last) with 8 points, having scored 18 and conceded 36. The gap is significant. Aegir's away record is poor: 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with only 7 goals scored and 18 conceded on the road. Grotta's home form is not among the division's best (outside the top 8 home table), but their overall record is much stronger than their opponents'.
Win Probability: Grotta or Aegir?
After normalizing the odds and adjusting for form, head-to-head, and league standings, we calculate the outcome probabilities as: Grotta win: 55%, Draw: 24%, Aegir win: 21%.
Grotta's recent results are not flawless, but they are significantly better than Aegir's disastrous run. The head-to-head record (never lost in 5) and the 11-point cushion in the table strongly favour the home side. Aegir's away defensive fragility further reduces their chances. The draw probability is kept at 24% because two of the last five H2H matches ended level and Grotta's home form has been inconsistent.
Odds & Match Prediction
Bookmakers have priced Grotta as clear favourites with a home win at 1.78. The draw is available at 4.05, and an away win for Aegir at 3.30. These odds reflect an implied probability that closely matches our adjusted numbers.
Our Grotta vs Aegir prediction: based on the stats and betting tips, Grotta are the most likely winners. The head-to-head record and Aegir's current form make it hard to see an away victory. However, with Grotta conceding regularly in recent games and two prior H2H draws, a low-scoring affair cannot be ruled out entirely. The safest bet on the match outcome remains a home win.
Grotta vs Aegir — FAQ
- Who will win Grotta vs Aegir?
- Based on our analysis, Grotta has a 55% chance of winning, while the draw probability is 24% and Aegir's win chance is 21%. Grotta are the expected winners thanks to a superior league position, a dominant head-to-head record, and Aegir's poor form.
- What is the win probability for Grotta?
- Grotta's win probability is calculated at 55%. This figure is derived from the betting odds, adjusted for their unbeaten head-to-head streak (3 wins, 2 draws) and a much stronger league standing compared to last-placed Aegir.
- When is the Grotta vs Aegir match?
- The match is scheduled for July 18, 2026, at 14:00 local time. It will be played in the Icelandic 1st Division, the country's second-tier league.
- What are the odds for the match?
- The latest odds show Grotta at 1.78 to win, the draw at 4.05, and an Aegir victory at 3.30. These prices make Grotta the strong favourite in the 1X2 market.
- What is the head-to-head record between Grotta and Aegir?
- Grotta lead the head-to-head record with 3 wins and 2 draws from 5 meetings. Aegir have never beaten Grotta, with the most recent encounter ending in a 1-0 away win for Grotta on May 9, 2026.