Grosseto - Orvietana Calcio prediction 22 February 2026

The Grosseto vs Orvietana Calcio prediction points to a tight Serie D contest on February 22, 2026 at 13:30. Based on recent form and head-to-head data, Orvietana Calcio enter as slight favourites with a 38% win probability, while Grosseto hold a 32% chance and the draw is estimated at 30%.

Team Form

Grosseto’s last five matches show two wins and three losses (W L W L L). Their two most recent home games ended in defeats — 3-2 against Ostia Mare Lidocalcio and 2-0 against San Donato Tavarnelle — which raises concerns about their home strength.

Orvietana Calcio have been harder to beat, with one win, three draws and one loss in their last five (D W D D L). Away from home in that sequence they posted a 1-0 win at US Follonica Gavorrano, a 0-0 draw at Poggibonsi and a 2-1 loss at ASD Tau Altopascio, showing they are competitive on the road.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head between Grosseto and Orvietana Calcio stands at 3 home wins, 0 draws and 2 away wins from five meetings. The home side has won three of the five encounters, highlighting a pattern where the host often prevails. Grosseto won the most recent home fixture 1-0 in October 2022, while Orvietana’s last trip to Grosseto ended in victory earlier in this 2026 fixture (data post-dates this pre-match view, but historically the fixture has been tight).

League Table Positions

The available Serie D standings do not include Grosseto or Orvietana Calcio among the top 12 teams, so a direct league-position comparison cannot be made. The table is led by Vado with 78 points, but neither side features in the provided overall, home or away rankings.

Win Probability: Grosseto or Orvietana Calcio?

Using pre-match factors — team form, head-to-head history and home advantage — we calculate the following outcome probabilities: Grosseto win: 32%, Draw: 30%, Orvietana Calcio win: 38%. Orvietana’s slightly more consistent recent results (three draws, one win) and Grosseto’s back-to-back home losses tip the balance towards the away side. Home advantage in this fixture has historically been relevant (3 home wins in 5 H2H), but Grosseto’s current home form weakens that edge. Therefore, Orvietana Calcio are the narrow favourites to win.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific 1X2 odds for Grosseto vs Orvietana Calcio were not available. Based on the available stats, our prediction aligns with the win probability assessment: Orvietana Calcio are the more likely winner, but a draw is a very realistic outcome. The match is expected to be low-scoring, mirroring the defensive records in recent outings. If you are looking for betting tips, backing the away team or the under 2.5 goals market could be worth considering, but always check the latest odds before placing a bet.