Mirassol SP - Gremio RS prediction 2 August 2026

Gremio RS vs Mirassol SP prediction for the Serie A match on Jul 17, 2026. Based on our analysis, Gremio RS enters as the favorite with a 40% win probability, while Mirassol SP has a 25% chance, and the draw stands at 35%. The match kicks off at 23:00 at Estadio Jose Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol, and bookmakers also see Gremio RS as the more likely winner, but the low draw odds hint at a tight contest.

Team Form

Gremio RS's last five results show inconsistency: two wins, two losses, and one draw. They beat Cruzeiro MG 3-1 away and Cascavel PR 2-1 away, but lost at home to Chapecoense SC (1-2) and Corinthians SP (1-3), and drew 2-2 at home with Montevideo City Torque. The side has scored in all five matches but kept no clean sheets.

Mirassol SP's recent form is similarly patchy with two wins and three losses in their last five. They suffered away defeats to Atletico Paranaense PR (0-1) and Lanus (0-1), then beat Fluminense RJ 1-0 at home and Always Ready 2-1 away, before falling 1-3 at Atletico Mineiro MG. The two wins came with clean sheets, but the team has struggled for goals in away games.

Head-to-Head Record

Mirassol SP has dominated this fixture historically, winning all three previous meetings. The most recent clash was on Sep 13, 2025, when Mirassol SP won 1-0 at Gremio RS. Earlier in 2025, Mirassol SP thrashed Gremio RS 4-1 at home, and back in 2022 they edged a 3-2 cup win, also at home. Across these three games, Mirassol SP scored 8 goals and conceded only 3, giving them a clear psychological edge.

League Table Positions

Gremio RS sits 8th in the home standings with 17 points from 9 games (5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses), scoring 15 and conceding 11. Mirassol SP does not appear in the top 12 overall or top 8 away standings, indicating a lower league position. However, this match is played at Mirassol's home ground, where their form is not reflected in the available away table. The league data suggests Gremio RS has been stronger at home, but the venue factor neutralizes that advantage.

Win Probability: Gremio RS or Mirassol SP?

After normalizing the average bookmaker odds (home win ~1.96, draw ~2.32, away win ~4.08) and adjusting for head-to-head dominance and home advantage for Mirassol SP, we calculate the following outcome probabilities:

• Gremio RS win: 40%
• Draw: 35%
• Mirassol SP win: 25%

The odds imply Gremio RS as the favorite, but the unusually low draw odds across multiple bookmakers signal a high chance of a stalemate. Mirassol SP's perfect H2H record and the fact they play at home increase their likelihood beyond the raw odds. Both teams' recent form is similar, so the match is expected to be closely fought. Gremio RS has a slightly higher probability of winning, but a draw is almost as likely, and Mirassol SP cannot be ruled out.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers offer the following best odds: Gremio RS win between 1.88 and 2.06, draw between 2.08 and 3.40, and Mirassol SP win between 3.80 and 4.33. The market clearly prices Gremio RS as the favorite, but the tight draw odds suggest value in the double chance market. Based on the stats, our prediction leans towards a draw or a narrow Gremio RS victory. A bet on 'Gremio RS or Draw' could be a sensible option, while a small stake on Mirassol SP might appeal to those backing the H2H trend.

Pre-Match Update: Three Days to Kick-Off

With three days until kick-off, the latest bookmaker odds show a slight shift. The average odds across major bookmakers now stand at 1.96 for a Gremio RS win, 2.32 for the draw, and 4.05 for a Mirassol SP victory. After normalizing to remove the margin, the implied win probabilities are approximately 43% for Gremio RS, 36% for the draw, and 21% for Mirassol SP. Compared to earlier figures, the favorite’s chances have edged up, while the away win probability has dipped. The draw remains a strong possibility, keeping the match finely poised.