Gremio RS - Corinthians SP prediction 30 May 2026

Gremio RS vs Corinthians SP prediction for the Serie A match on May 30, 2026. Based on the available data, Corinthians SP enters this fixture as the slight favorite with a 36% chance to win, while Gremio RS has a 34% probability and the draw stands at 30%.

Team Form

Gremio RS's recent outings show a mixed bag. In their last two matches before this clash, they drew 2-2 at home against Montevideo City Torque in the Copa Sudamericana on May 26 and secured a 3-2 home victory over Santos SP in Serie A on May 23. That gives them a short form of D, W.

Corinthians SP have played four matches leading up to this game. They suffered a 0-2 home loss to CA Platense in the Copa Libertadores on May 28, bounced back with a 1-0 home win against Atletico Mineiro MG in Serie A on May 24, drew 1-1 away at CA Penarol Montevideo on May 22, and lost 1-3 away to Botafogo RJ on May 17. Their form reads L, W, D, L — inconsistent but with a recent win.

Head-to-Head Record

The overall head-to-head record between these two sides shows 5 wins for Gremio RS, 11 draws, and 7 wins for Corinthians SP. Looking at the last four meetings, Corinthians SP have dominated: they won 2-0 at home in November 2025, the teams drew 1-1 at Gremio in June 2025, Corinthians won 3-0 at Gremio in December 2024, and Corinthians won 1-0 at Gremio in November 2023. Gremio RS have failed to beat Corinthians in any of those four encounters (0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses).

League Table Positions

In the overall Serie A standings, Corinthians SP sit 10th with 24 points from 18 matches (6 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses). Gremio RS are outside the top 12. However, the home table tells a different story: Gremio RS are 8th with 17 points from 9 home games (5 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses), while Corinthians SP are 7th in the away table with 10 points from 9 away matches (2 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses). Gremio's home strength is a key factor.

Win Probability: Gremio RS or Corinthians SP?

After analyzing the available data — head-to-head record, recent form, league positions, and home/away splits — we calculate the following win probabilities for this match:

• Gremio RS win: 34%
• Draw: 30%
• Corinthians SP win: 36%

Corinthians SP hold a narrow advantage. Their recent head-to-head dominance at this venue (two wins and a draw in the last three visits) and higher overall league position give them the edge. However, Gremio RS's solid home record (5-2-2) and Corinthians' inconsistent away form (2-4-3) keep the match finely balanced. The 30% draw probability reflects the history of stalemates between these sides (11 draws in 23 all-time meetings).

Odds & Match Prediction

No bookmaker odds are currently available for this fixture. Based on the stats, Corinthians SP are seen as the marginal favorite. A close contest is expected, with a low-scoring affair likely given both teams' recent outputs. Our prediction leans towards an away win, but a draw is a very realistic outcome.