Moreton City Excelsior Women - Grange Thistle Women prediction 18 July 2026

The Moreton City Excelsior Women vs Grange Thistle Women prediction for the Queensland Premier League Women match on July 18, 2026 at 08:30 UTC points to an away victory. Grange Thistle Women enter the game as strong favorites with a 52% win probability, while struggling Moreton City Excelsior Women have just an 18% chance.

Team Form

Moreton City Excelsior Women are in poor form, with three losses and two draws in their last five matches. Their most recent result was a 1-0 defeat away to Peninsula Power Women on July 11. They also suffered a heavy 6-0 home loss to North Lakes United Women and a 3-2 loss at Logan Lightning Women. The only points came from draws against Palm Beach Sharks Women (1-1) and Sunshine Coast Women (2-2).

Grange Thistle Women, on the other hand, have won four of their last five matches. On July 14 they beat North Lakes United Women 3-2 at home, and two days earlier they demolished Virginia United Women 5-0 away. Other wins include a 3-1 home victory over Logan Lightning Women and a 4-2 away win at Peninsula Power Women. The only recent setback was a 3-1 home loss to Mitchelton Women on July 4. This strong form makes them clear favorites.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between these two sides spans three matches. Grange Thistle Women have won twice, while Moreton City Excelsior Women have one win, with no draws. The most recent meeting was on April 26, 2026, when Moreton City Excelsior Women won 3-1 away at Grange Thistle Women. Before that, Grange Thistle Women won 2-0 at home in August 2025 and 2-0 away in May 2025. Despite the last result, the overall H2H balance slightly favors the away side.

Win Probability: Moreton City Excelsior Women or Grange Thistle Women?

Based on the pre-match odds, recent form, head-to-head record, and home advantage, the win probabilities are calculated as follows:

• Moreton City Excelsior Women win: 18%
• Draw: 30%
• Grange Thistle Women win: 52%

The odds implied a Grange Thistle Women win probability of about 48%, but their superior form (four wins in five) and the H2H edge (2 wins to 1) push the adjusted chance to 52%. Moreton City Excelsior Women’s poor run of results and lack of home wins in recent matches reduce their chance to just 18%, with the draw at 30%.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Grange Thistle Women as the favorite. One set of odds gives 4.50 for a home win, 2.75 for the draw, and 1.91 for an away win. Another bookmaker offers 4.55, 2.72, and 1.82 respectively. These odds translate to an away win probability of around 48% before any adjustments. Based on the stats, Grange Thistle Women are predicted to win this Queensland Premier League Women match.