Citta di Varese - Gozzano prediction 22 March 2026

The Gozzano vs Citta di Varese prediction for the Serie D clash on Mar 22 sees the visitors as slight favorites. Based on our analysis of team form, head-to-head record, and league table positions, Citta di Varese holds a 35% win probability, while Gozzano has a 30% chance and the draw is rated at 35%. The match kicks off at 13:30 at Gozzano's home ground.

Team Form

Gozzano's recent form across the last five matches reads D, W, L, W, D. They managed two wins, two draws and one loss, including a 1-0 home victory over Asd Cairese 1919 and a 3-2 home win against ASD Chisola Calcio. However, a 2-0 away defeat to Biellese shows some inconsistency.

Citta di Varese's last five results are L, W, W, W, L, with three wins and two losses. Notably, they secured back-to-back 1-0 home wins against AC Saluzzo and Derthona, and a 2-1 away victory at Biellese. Their two defeats came against Ligorna (5-3) and Celle Varazze (2-0), both away from home.

Head-to-Head Record

In the overall head-to-head record between these two sides, the home team has won just twice, while there have been four draws and two away wins. The most recent encounters include a 3-1 home win for Gozzano in November 2025 and a 1-1 draw in May 2025. Citta di Varese won the previous two meetings (2-1 and 2-1), both played at their own ground. This history points to a closely matched fixture with a strong tendency towards draws.

League Table Positions

Citta di Varese sits 4th in the Serie D standings with 56 points from 34 matches (16 wins, 8 draws, 10 losses). They have been particularly effective away from home, collecting 28 points from 17 road games (8 wins). Gozzano, meanwhile, is not among the top 12 in the league table, indicating a lower position and a points gap that gives Citta di Varese a clear advantage in the current season.

Win Probability: Gozzano or Citta di Varese?

Our calculated win probabilities for this match are: Gozzano 30%, draw 35%, and Citta di Varese 35%. These figures are derived from the inverse of bookmaker odds (where available), adjusted for recent form, the head-to-head draw trend, and the significant league table gap. With home advantage partially offset by the visitors' superior league standing, the draw emerges as the most likely single outcome, but Citta di Varese holds the narrowest of edges overall.

Odds & Match Prediction

Odds for this match were not available at the time of writing. However, based on the stats, Citta di Varese enters the game as the marginal favorite. The high draw probability and Gozzano's home resilience make a draw or a narrow away win the most plausible scenarios. Our betting tip would lean towards the double chance X2, but bettors should check the latest odds closer to kick-off.