Tondela - Gil Vicente prediction 13 April 2026

Gil Vicente vs Tondela prediction for the Primeira Liga match on Apr 13, 2026. The game kicks off at 19:15 UTC at Estádio João Cardoso. Based on current form and head‑to‑head data, Tondela is the slight favourite with a 35% win probability.

Team Form

Gil Vicente

Gil Vicente have struggled for consistency, taking just 4 points from their last 5 matches (W1 D1 L3). Their only win in that run was a 2‑1 home victory over Casa Pia on Apr 27. Since then, they lost 3‑0 at Sporting Lisbon, were beaten 3‑1 at home by Arouca, drew 0‑0 at Rio Ave and lost 1‑0 at home to Vitoria Guimaraes. At home, they have one win, one draw (none in the last five at home – actually the draw was away, so home record in the last three is one win, two losses) in the most recent outings, conceding 7 goals in those three matches.

Tondela

Tondela have picked up 7 points from the same period (W2 D1 L2). After a 2‑0 home win over Moreirense and a 1‑0 victory at Casa Pia, they followed a 2‑2 draw at Sporting Lisbon with a 2‑0 home loss to Nacional Madeira and a 3‑1 defeat at Arouca. Their away form is mixed but includes a win and a draw against strong sides, showing resilience on the road.

Head‑to‑Head Record

The last 11 meetings between the sides are evenly balanced: Gil Vicente 3 wins, Tondela 3 wins, and 5 draws. In the most recent league encounter (Nov 29, 2025), Tondela won 1‑0 at Gil Vicente’s ground. Prior to that, Gil Vicente recorded a 3‑0 home win in May 2022 and a 3‑0 away win in December 2021. The head‑to‑head stats suggest neither team holds a decisive psychological edge.

Win Probability: Gil Vicente or Tondela?

We have calculated the outcome probabilities based on recent form, head‑to‑head record and home/away factor:
— Gil Vicente win: 30%
— Draw: 35%
— Tondela win: 35%
Tondela’s stronger recent form (1.4 points per game vs 0.8) and a 1‑0 away win in the last league meeting tip the balance slightly in their favour. Gil Vicente’s home advantage is partly offset by a weak home record (1 win in the last 3). The draw has also been a frequent result in this fixture (5 of 11 overall). Therefore, Tondela is the most likely winner, but it remains a tight contest.

Odds & Match Prediction

Specific odds for Gil Vicente vs Tondela are not available in the current data. Bookmakers usually publish prices closer to kick‑off. Based on the statistics, Tondela appears to have the edge, and a low‑scoring affair looks probable given both sides’ recent results. Our prediction leans towards a Tondela win or a draw, with under 2.5 goals a likely outcome.