Fortaleza CE - Gremio Novorizontino SP prediction 18 July 2026

The Fortaleza CE vs Gremio Novorizontino SP prediction for this Serie B encounter on July 18, 2026, at 00:00 UTC suggests a close affair. Fortaleza CE has a 42% chance of winning, the draw is at 36%, and Gremio Novorizontino SP has a 22% probability. Fortaleza’s fortress-like home form makes them the slight favorite, but the visitors are resilient opponents.

Team Form

Fortaleza CE’s last five matches: L, W, W, D, L. They were beaten 1-0 by Atletico Goianiense away in their most recent outing, but prior to that they secured back-to-back home wins — 2-0 against Ponte Preta and 2-1 against Sport Recife. A 1-1 draw at CRB AL and a 3-0 home loss to America Mineiro complete the picture. Over these five games, Fortaleza scored 5 goals and conceded 6. Their home record this season is formidable: 6 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in 8 matches, with 16 goals scored and only 8 conceded.

Gremio Novorizontino SP’s recent form is L, W, W, W, D. They lost 2-1 away to Operario PR in their last match, which ended a series of positive results. Before that, they were impressive: a 3-0 home win over Atletico Goianiense, a 2-1 home victory against Vila Nova, a 2-0 away win at Ponte Preta, and a 2-2 draw at Nautico. In total, they scored 10 goals and allowed 5 in these five fixtures. On the road, Gremio has a balanced record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses from 9 away games, with 14 goals for and 7 against.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no previous head-to-head record between Fortaleza CE and Gremio Novorizontino SP. This is the first official meeting between the two sides in the Serie B.

League Table Positions

In the overall Serie B standings, Gremio Novorizontino SP holds 4th place with 30 points (8 wins, 6 draws, 3 losses, goal difference +12). Fortaleza CE is right behind in 6th with 28 points (8 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses, goal difference +3). Only two points separate the teams. At home, Fortaleza CE is 3rd with 19 points from 8 games (6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), while Gremio Novorizontino SP is 4th in the away table with 13 points from 9 games (3 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses).

Win Probability: Fortaleza CE or Gremio Novorizontino SP?

We calculate the win probabilities as follows: Fortaleza CE win — 42%, Draw — 36%, Gremio Novorizontino SP win — 22%. The average bookmaker odds (home 2.15, draw 2.10, away 3.86) implied a very tight match, with the draw being the most likely outcome at 39.67% before adjustment. However, Fortaleza’s exceptional home record (6-1-1) and the fact that they have been scoring consistently at home tilt the balance slightly in their favor. Gremio’s away resilience (only 2 losses in 9 away games) and their tendency to draw (4 draws) keep the draw probability high. Overall, Fortaleza is the more probable winner, but it’s far from a certainty.

Fortaleza CE vs Gremio Novorizontino SP Prediction & Odds

Bookmakers’ average odds for the 1X2 market are: Fortaleza CE win at 2.15, draw at 2.10, and Gremio Novorizontino SP win at 3.86. The extremely short draw odds reflect the expected competitiveness of this match. Based on the stats, our prediction leans towards a Fortaleza win or a draw. A scoreline like 1-0 or 1-1 is plausible. For betting tips, the double chance 1X offers value, and under 2.5 goals might be an option considering both teams’ defensive records. Always gamble responsibly.