Flora Tallinn II - FC Maardu prediction 18 July 2026

Our Flora Tallinn II vs FC Maardu prediction for the Esiliiga match on Jul 18 at 16:00 is that Flora Tallinn II are the favorites with a 50% win probability. The game takes place at Sportland Arena in Tallinn, and bookmakers have priced the home side at odds of 1.70. FC Maardu, despite a recent win in the head-to-head, face an uphill battle away from home.

Team Form

Flora Tallinn II's last five matches show mixed results: a win against Elva (3-0), two draws with Nomme United 2 (1-1 and 3-3), and two defeats—a 3-2 loss to FC Maardu and a heavy 4-0 home loss to Levadia Tallinn II. Their form reads D, L, L, D, W, indicating inconsistency.

FC Maardu have been more consistent recently, with three wins in their last five. They beat Flora Tallinn II 3-2, Viimsi MRJK 1-0, and JK Nomme Kalju 2 2-1, drew 3-3 with Tallinna Kalev, but suffered a shocking 8-1 defeat at home to Tartu JK Welco Elekter. Their away record this season is weak: only 1 win, 3 draws, and 5 losses in 9 trips.

Head-to-Head Record

In 22 previous meetings, Flora Tallinn II have won 8 times, FC Maardu 10, and 4 matches ended in draws. The most recent clash on Jul 09, 2026, saw FC Maardu win 3-2 at home. Earlier this season, Flora Tallinn II thrashed Maardu 5-0 on May 1. The H2H record suggests a slight edge for the away side historically, but results have been unpredictable.

League Table Positions

Flora Tallinn II sit 3rd in the Esiliiga with 31 points from 18 games (9 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses). They have scored 45 goals and conceded 35. FC Maardu are 6th with 23 points from 19 matches (6 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses), with a goal difference of 27:46. At home, Flora Tallinn II rank 4th with 5 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Maardu's away record is poor: only 1 win, 3 draws, 5 losses, with 13 goals scored and 26 conceded.

Win Probability: Flora Tallinn II or FC Maardu?

Flora Tallinn II has a 50% chance of winning, the draw is at 28%, and FC Maardu has a 22% chance. These probabilities are based on bookmaker odds (home 1.70, draw 2.78, away 3.55), normalized to remove the margin, then adjusted for recent form and league positions. Flora Tallinn II's home advantage and higher table standing give them the edge, but their inconsistent form and Maardu's recent head-to-head win keep the draw and away win possibilities alive.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see Flora Tallinn II as the clear favorite, offering odds around 1.70 for a home win. The draw is priced at 2.78, and an FC Maardu victory at 3.55. Based on the stats, Flora Tallinn II are expected to win, but a draw cannot be ruled out given both teams' recent results. Our Flora Tallinn II vs FC Maardu prediction is a home victory, but with caution.