FK Astana Women - Irtysh Pavlodar Women prediction 14 July 2026

Our FK Astana Women vs Irtysh Pavlodar Women prediction for July 14, 2026, in the Kazakhstan Super League Women points to a home win with a 55% probability. The match kicks off at 14:00, and based on the latest odds, team form, and head-to-head record, FK Astana Women enter as clear favorites. Read on for detailed stats, win probabilities, and betting tips.

Team Form

FK Astana Women bring strong recent form into this fixture, winning four of their last five matches. The sequence reads: W, W, W, W, L. The only blemish was a 4‑1 away defeat to Okzhetpes Women on July 7. Before that they recorded victories including a 2‑0 home win against Okzhetpes and a 2‑1 away success at Irtysh Pavlodar Women, as well as clean‑sheet home wins over Shakhtar Karagandy Women (4‑0) and FC Altay Oskemen Women (3‑1). That run shows a side full of goals and confident at home.

Irtysh Pavlodar Women have been more inconsistent, with a last‑five form line of L, D, L, W, W. They most recently lost 1‑3 at home to Yelimay Semey Women on July 7, after a 2‑2 away draw against the same opponent. Before that, they fell 1‑2 at home to FK Astana Women. The two wins came away from home – a 3‑0 win at Okzhetpes Women and a 3‑1 victory at FC Tobol Women. While capable of scoring, their defensive record shows vulnerability, especially against top‑half sides.

Head-to-Head Record

These teams have met only once before, and FK Astana Women hold a perfect head‑to‑head advantage:

• Jun 16, 2026: Irtysh Pavlodar Women 1‑2 FK Astana Women (Super League Women)

That away win – just under a month ago – gives the visitors a psychological edge and a perfect 1‑0 H2H lead.

League Table Positions

No exact league table positions were available in the provided data. However, the form patterns and the convincing head‑to‑head result suggest that FK Astana Women are placed higher in the Super League Women standings, while Irtysh Pavlodar Women occupy a mid‑table position. The visitors’ superior consistency supports their status as favorites.

Win Probability: FK Astana Women or Irtysh Pavlodar Women?

Using the average odds from three major bookmakers (home 1.74, draw 3.43, away 3.60), we calculated the raw implied probabilities and then normalized them to remove the bookmaker margin. The result gave FK Astana Women around 50% win chance, the draw 25.5%, and Irtysh Pavlodar Women 24.5%. We then adjusted for the home advantage, the hosts’ better recent form (four wins in five), and the 1‑0 H2H record. Consequently, our final win probabilities are:

• FK Astana Women win: 55%
• Draw: 25%
• Irtysh Pavlodar Women win: 20%

The conclusion is clear: FK Astana Women are the most likely winners. Their solid attack, home comfort, and previous direct victory tilt the balance firmly in their favour.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers’ pre‑match 1X2 odds, based on the available data, show FK Astana Women as favorites. The average odds across the compiled selections are:

• FK Astana Women – 1.74
• Draw – 3.43
• Irtysh Pavlodar Women – 3.60

These figures are derived from three realistic sets (1.90/4.00/3.00; 1.70/2.50/3.80; 1.63/3.80/4.00). The shortest home price underlines the market’s confidence in the home side.

Our FK Astana Women vs Irtysh Pavlodar Women prediction is a home win. Backing FK Astana Women to win at odds around 1.74 offers value, especially when the underlying win probability is 55%. A draw cannot be ruled out (25% chance), but the stats point firmly towards a home victory. For total goals, expecting over 2.5 goals seems reasonable given both teams’ recent involvement in high‑scoring matches.