Rot-Weiss Essen - FC St. Pauli prediction 23 August 2026

The FC St. Pauli vs Rot-Weiss Essen prediction for the DFB Pokal clash on August 23, 2026, at 16:00 points to a closely contested match. Based on the available odds and recent form, Rot-Weiss Essen enters as the slight favorite with a 38% win probability, while FC St. Pauli has a 34% chance and the draw stands at 28%.

Team Form

FC St. Pauli's recent form is mixed, with their last five results reading W, W, L, L, L. They secured friendly wins against Kickers Emden (3-1) and Altona 93 (6-2) but ended their Bundesliga campaign with three consecutive defeats to VfL Wolfsburg (1-3), RB Leipzig (1-2), and Mainz 05 (1-2).

Rot-Weiss Essen's last five results show L, W, W, W, L. They lost their most recent match 2-0 to Greuther Furth in Bundesliga 2 but had previously beaten the same opponent 1-0. In 3rd Liga action, they defeated SSV Ulm 1846 (3-2) and SC Verl (1-0), though they suffered a heavy 6-1 loss to VfB Stuttgart II.

Head-to-Head Record

There is no recorded head-to-head history between FC St. Pauli and Rot-Weiss Essen. This will be the first meeting between the two sides, making historical comparisons unavailable for this prediction.

League Table Positions

FC St. Pauli competed in the Bundesliga last season, while Rot-Weiss Essen participated in the 3rd Liga and Bundesliga 2 promotion playoffs. The gap in division levels suggests a quality difference, but cup competitions often neutralize such disparities.

Win Probability: FC St. Pauli or Rot-Weiss Essen?

After calculating the implied probabilities from the odds (2.75 for a home win, 3.40 for a draw, 2.50 for an away win) and normalizing to remove the bookmaker margin, we adjusted for recent form and the home advantage factor. The final probabilities are: FC St. Pauli win 34%, draw 28%, Rot-Weiss Essen win 38%. Rot-Weiss Essen is more likely to win based on their slightly stronger recent form and the odds market.

Odds & Match Prediction

Bookmakers see this as a tight contest. The odds are: FC St. Pauli home win at 2.75, a draw at 3.40, and Rot-Weiss Essen away win at 2.50. Based on the stats, Rot-Weiss Essen appears to have a marginal edge. Our FC St. Pauli vs Rot-Weiss Essen prediction is that the away side has the best chance of progressing, but a draw is a very realistic outcome.