UD Leiria U23 - Farense U23 prediction 24 March 2026

Farense U23 vs UD Leiria U23 prediction for the Championship U23 match on Mar 24, 2026 at 15:00 UTC. Based on our analysis of team form, head-to-head record, and league standings, Farense U23 enters as the favorite with a 48% chance of winning. The draw probability is 28%, and UD Leiria U23 has a 24% chance to pull off an away win.

Team Form

Farense U23 last five results: W, D, W, W, L. They come into this match with three wins, one draw, and one loss from their recent five outings. In their most recent match on Apr 28, 2026, they beat Portimonense U23 2-1 away. Other key results include a 1-1 home draw against Estoril Praia U23 (Apr 21), a 2-1 away win at Maritimo U23 (Apr 14), a 1-0 home win vs Estrela Amadora U23 (Apr 8), and a narrow 3-2 defeat at Gil Vicente U23 (Apr 3). They have scored in all five matches, with the defense conceding in four.

UD Leiria U23 last five results: W, W, W, D, D. They are unbeaten in five, with three wins followed by two draws. Recent highlights: a 1-0 home win over Rio Ave U23 (Apr 28), a 3-0 away thrashing of Vizela U23 (Apr 21), a 4-2 home victory against Portimonense U23 (Apr 8), a 1-1 away draw at Estoril Praia U23 (Mar 29), and a 0-0 home stalemate against Farense U23 (Mar 24). The team has found the net in four of those five games.

Head-to-Head Record

These sides have met three times before this fixture. Farense U23 lead the head-to-head with 2 wins, UD Leiria U23 have 1 win, and there have been no draws. The most recent encounter was on Feb 24, 2026, where Farense U23 won 1-0 at home. Prior to that, UD Leiria U23 lost 0-1 at home on Dec 15, 2025, and Farense U23 lost 0-1 at home on Sep 30, 2025. All three matches were decided by a one-goal margin, underlining the tight nature of this matchup.

League Table Positions

Farense U23 sit 6th in the Championship U23 with 24 points from 15 matches (7 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses). They have scored 20 goals and conceded 16. Their home record is solid: 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses in 8 games (14 points, 8 goals scored, 6 conceded).

UD Leiria U23 are 12th with 15 points from 15 matches (4 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses). They have 23 goals for and 26 against. Their away form data is limited, but overall they have lost more than half their games, suggesting vulnerability on the road.

Win Probability: Farense U23 or UD Leiria U23?

After weighing all available stats, we assign the following win probabilities: Farense U23 win 48%, draw 28%, UD Leiria U23 win 24%. The reasoning: Farense U23 enjoy home advantage and a stronger league position (6th vs 12th). Their home record shows a 50% win rate, and they have dominated the head-to-head with two wins in three meetings. UD Leiria U23’s recent five-match unbeaten run (W,W,W,D,D) cannot be ignored—it gives them a realistic chance, especially with their ability to score. However, their overall poor league record and away struggles reduce their probability. The draw probability is elevated because both recent meetings were tight, one-goal affairs, and the most recent clash ended 0-0. Therefore, Farense U23 are the more likely winner, but the contest is expected to be close.

Odds & Match Prediction

1X2 odds were not available at the time of writing; the selected market is set to _1X2. If odds become available, bookmakers would likely price Farense U23 as favorites given the home advantage and superior league standing. Based on stats alone, our prediction is a home win for Farense U23, with a draw considered a plausible alternative. UD Leiria U23 could surprise if they maintain their recent form, but the data points toward a narrow Farense U23 victory.